Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Le coronavirus aurait un effet limité sur la croissance de la zone euro
Standard and Poor’s Global Ratings s’est prêté à l’exercice de l’estimation. Les Dix-neuf membres de la zone ne seraient pas affectés dans la même ampleur.
Santé, virus, contagion
Les économistes de l’agence de notation commencent par expliquer qu’il existe au moins trois raisons pour lesquelles l’actuelle épidémie de pneumonie virale ne peut être pertinemment comparée à celle du SRAS en 2002-2003 si l’on souhaite appréhender ces effets sur l’économie européenne.
Premièrement, l'effet sur la confiance pourrait être "différent" selon S&P. Si le coronavirus se propage à une vitesse beaucoup plus élevée, son taux de mortalité n'attend que le tiers de celui du SRAS et le système de santé chinois n’a rien à avoir avec ce qu’il était alors. Haiyan Li-Labbé, analyste actions chinoises au sein de l’équipe actions émergentes de Carmignac expliquait récemment que 95% de la population chinoise est couverte par une assurance maladie contre moins de 50% en 2005. Si ces éléments sont plutôt rassurants, S&P explique qu'avec l’important développement des réseaux sociaux, on observe une hausse de la probabilité de la propagation de fausses informations. Au total, il est donc peu aisé de quantifier le choc de confiance que l'épidémie constitue.
Ensuite, les relations commerciales entre la Chine et l’économie européenne se sont nettement renforcées. De fait, les exportations de biens européens vers la Chine représentent aujourd’hui 1,5% du PIB européen – 170 milliards d’euros – contre 0,4% en 2003. S&P explique également que les touristes chinois représentent aujourd'hui 6,3% des nuitées de vacances des non-Européens, contre moins de 2% en 2003. Le troisième point mentionné par S&P est la résilience de la demande intérieure européenne. De fait, le contexte macroéconomique de la zone euro n’avait rien à voir avec ce qu’il est aujourd’hui. En 2003, la zone euro connaissait un chômage en hausse et se remettait lentement de l’éclatement de la bulle internet. Aujourd’hui le taux de chômage est proche du plus bas historique.
S&P voit une croissance chinoise de 5% en 2020 - contre 5,7% avant l’apparition de l’épidémie. Dans ce scénario, cela grèverait la croissance de la zone euro de "0,1 à 0,2 point". Une moindre croissance qui serait principalement le fruit d’une "diminution des exportations de biens et de services ainsi que des investissements des entreprises", précise S&P. Ce serait l’Allemagne qui en pâtirait le plus avec 0,18 point de croissance en moins, la France, elle perdrait 0,13 point de croissance.
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