Macro-économie / Taux

Moody’s revoit à la baisse la croissance mondiale

C’est le coronavirus qui tempère l’optimisme de l’agence de notation américaine. L’économie mondiale devrait souffrir essentiellement durant le premier trimestre de l’année.

PAR Yoann Defrance

Moody’s

C’est au tour de Moody’s de réviser à la baisse ses prévisions concernant la croissance mondiale alors que se succèdent, depuis quelques semaines, et ce, au fur et à mesure que l’épidémie de pneumonie virale a pris de l’ampleur, des prévisions de plus en plus pessimistes sur l'économie mondiale. Initialement l’agence de notation américaine voyait la croissance mondiale en volume s’établir à 2,6% pour l’année 2020. Il faudrait désormais s’attendre à 2,4%, soit un léger ralentissement par rapport à 2019 où la croissance devrait avoir atteint 2,6% selon la firme américaine.

Dans le détail, les économies avancées ne voient pas leur croissance révisée significativement à la baisse (1,3% contre 1,4% dans le rapport de Moody’s du mois de novembre dernier). C’est le Japon et la Corée du Sud qui devraient le plus souffrir des effets collatéraux du coronavirus en raison de leur importante relation commerciale avec la Chine. Le Japon voit sa croissance révisée à la baisse de 0,1 point (0,3% contre 0,4%) et la Corée du Sud de 0,2 point (1,9% contre 2,1%) Les économies émergentes devraient également croître moins qu’escompté. Les deux grands perdants sont la Chine qui voit sa croissance révisée de 0,6 point (5,2% contre 5,8% précédemment) et l’Inde de 1,2 point (5,4% contre 6,6%).

Côté bonnes nouvelles pour l'économie mondiale, Moody’s évoque l’accord de phase 1 entre la Chine et les Etats-Unis ainsi que la sortie - pour l’instant - sans encombre du Royaume-Uni de l’Union européenne. Cependant, le coronavirus vient évidemment chambouler tout cela. Selon l’agence de notation, le pic de l’épidémie devrait être atteint au cours du premier trimestre de l’année. Les effets délétères sur la Chine devraient donc se concentrer surtout sur le premier quart de l'année et l'on devrait assister un retour à la normale de l'activité économique de l'Empire du Milieu dès le début du mois d'avril.

Dans ses perspectives pour l’économie mondiale actualisées, Moody’s mentionne également la politique monétaire. Si rien ne devrait bouger du côté de la Réserve fédérale américaine et de la Banque centrale européene, il en va autrement pour la Banque d’Angleterre. En effet, contrairement à son dernier rapport, Moody's voit la Banque d’Angleterre mener une politique monétaire davantage accommodante alors que cette dernière est confrontée au défi de l’incertitude liée aux négociations commerciales post Brexit. Si elle n’a pas baissé ses taux au mois de janvier lors de la dernière réunion de politique monétaire du Gouverneur Mark Carney, elle pourrait être amenée à le faire dans l’année.

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