Le Rafale fait la pluie et le beau temps chez Dassault
Après des résultats 2019 en très forte hausse, l’avionneur anticipe un exercice 2020 plus compliqué.
Rafale - avion
Longtemps Arlésienne de Dassault Aviation, l’exportation du Rafale a fait les beaux jours du groupe en 2019. Grâce à une livraison record de 26 avions de combat à l’étranger (Qatar, Égypte et Inde), contre 9 en 2018, le chiffre d’affaires du constructeur aéronautique a bondi de 44% l’année dernière (pour atteindre un montant historique de 7,3 milliards d’euros) et le bénéfice net de 24,5% (à 713 millions). Les marges se sont également améliorées, si l’on exclut l’indemnité versée par Safran concernant le moteur Silvercrest du Falcon 5X qui avait gonflé les bénéfices de Dassault en 2018.
La partie Défense export, dont les revenus ont été multipliés par trois et qui représentent désormais 58% de ceux du groupe, a en effet soutenu les comptes, les autres pôles affichant de sévères baisses.
En l’absence de livraison de Rafale pour la France en 2019 (contre 3 un an plus tôt), conformément à la loi de programmation militaire, le chiffre d’affaires Défense pour la France a reculé de 16,8%, à 887 millions d’euros, tandis que la division d’affaires Falcon chute de 15,6% (à 2,2 milliards). Dassault, qui a livré 40 avions d’affaires contre un objectif de 45, a souffert de l’abandon du Falcon 5X en décembre 2017 et d’un marché difficile.
Le bénéfice net a par ailleurs profité d’une contribution en légère hausse des résultats de Thales (351 contre 294 millions), dont Dassault détient 25% du capital.
La Rafale-dépendance jouera en revanche des tours à Dassault en 2020, lors de laquelle l’avionneur anticipe une baisse de son chiffre d’affaires. Le groupe compte en effet sur 13 livraisons cette année en France et à l’étranger, soit deux fois moins qu’en 2019. C’est pourquoi le PDG Eric Trappier a insisté sur la nécessité de trouver de nouveaux marchés à l’export pour le Rafale : Dassault est notamment en appel d’offres en Suisse et en Finlande, pour des décisions normalement en 2021.
L'aviation d'affaires dans l'inconnu
Ce d’autant plus que la probabilité que les avions d’affaires prennent le relais n’est pas certaine. Pour 2020, le groupe prévoit de livrer 40 Falcon, objectif pour lequel Eric Trappier s'est dit "raisonnablement optimiste" malgré un marché "difficile à bien maîtriser". "Si on l'annonce, c'est qu'on pense raisonnablement y arriver, en même temps je vous aurais dit la même chose il y a un an sur les 45 Falcon et au final il y en a eu 40", a-t-il concédé.
Le carnet de commandes s'établissait fin 2019 à 17,8 milliards d'euros, comprenant 75 Rafale (28 pour la France, 47 pour l'export) et 53 Falcon. Le ratio de prises de commandes sur chiffre d'affaires (book-to-bill) est de 0,78.
2020 sera également marqué par la poursuite de l’augmentation des dépenses de R&D, en raison du développement simultané de deux programmes Falcon, dont le 6X, successeur du mort-né 5X et attendu pour 2022. Ce qui devrait peser sur les marges de Dassault.
Enfin, l’année verra le démarrage du programme du futur avion de combat franco-allemand, le Scaf (Système de combat aérien futur), dont le premier prototype est attendu en 2026.
Le groupe propose un dividende de 25,4 euros par action (en hausse de 20%). Les actionnaires toucheront ainsi un total de 212 millions d'euros. A noter que, conformément à la politique de distribution des trois tiers mise en place par feu Serge Dassault, les salariés percevront quasiment la même somme (187 millions d'euros) sous forme de participation et d'intéressement. Le groupe versera 215 millions d'euros d'impôt sur les sociétés, dont 98% en France.
Devant une année 2020 incertaine et dans un contexte de baisse généralisée des marchés (le SBF120 a perdu 3,25%), Dassault Aviation a reculé de 5,7%, à 1.015 euros.
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