Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Triste record pour les États-Unis
À l’heure où nous parlons, le Covid-19 a été à l’origine de 900 décès et de 64.180 contaminations aux États-Unis. Ayant entraîné les autorités du pays à prendre des mesures de restrictions telles que le confinement, il commence à faire officiellement ses effets sur l'économie réelle à travers la dégradation significative du marché du travail.
De fait, lors de la semaine se terminant le 21 mars, les inscriptions hebdomadaires au chômage se sont littéralement envolées pour atteindre un record historique à 3,283 millions – elles sont mesurées par le Département du Travail depuis janvier 1967. Par rapport aux inscriptions enregistrées il y a deux semaines, cela constitue une hausse de 1064% (3.001.000) - elles étaient de 282.000. Le précédent record, lui, a été pulvérisé puisqu’il était de 695.000 - c'était en octobre 1982 lorsque les États-Unis étaient en récession. Pendant la crise financière mondiale, ce chiffre avait atteint un plus haut en mars 2009, pour atteindre 665.000. Si en moyenne, les analystes s’attendaient à un million d'inscriptions au chômage, leurs prévisions allaient de 250.000 jusqu'à 4 millions. Dans le détail, Si l’Etat de Pennsylvanie est l’Etat qui a connu le plus fort bond de ses inscriptions puisqu’elles ont été multipliées par près de 25, passant de 15.439 à 378.908, il est également celui dont les inscriptions furent les plus élevées. Suivent L’Ohio avec 187.784 inscriptions et la Californie avec 186.809 inscriptions.
Cela ne fait aucun doute que l’économie américaine est entrée en récession, selon Matthieu Luzzetti, chef économiste de la Deutsche Bank. Michelle Meyer, économiste en charge des États-Unis chez Bank Of America, insiste, elle, sur la "gravité" et la "rapidité" de la récession. Nancy Van Houten, économiste d’Oxford Economics n’hésite pas à dire qu’ "avec des blocages partiels dans tout le pays qui entraînent un arrêt soudain de l'activité économique, l'économie américaine connaîtra la plus forte contraction économique jamais enregistrée, avec la plus forte hausse du chômage jamais enregistrée". De son côté, Subadra Rajappa, stratégiste taux à la Société générale, anticipe des chiffres d'inscriptions "peut-être pas plus mauvais que cette semaine" mais il prévient que les créations d'emplois du mois d'avril seront "affreuses".
Considéré comme un indicateur avancé du taux de chômage, quel message envoie ce triste à propos de son niveau dans les temps à venir? Il y a peu, le secrétaire au Trésor, Steven Mnuchin, avait évoqué la possibilité d'un taux de chômage de 20 %, ce qui impliquerait que le chômage passe d'un peu moins de 6 millions en février à 33 millions. Le président de la Fed de St Louis, James Bullard, a lui, parlé d'un taux de chômage de 30 %, ce qui laisserait près de 50 millions de personnes sans emploi aux États-Unis. Selon James Knightley, économiste d'ING, "plus la crise se prolonge, plus il est probable que même les entreprises de bonne qualité fassent faillite et que le chômage augmente - d'où l'importance de l'accord sur le paquet fiscal qui peut apporter un soutien aux industries clés et aux petites entreprises". Pour Nancy Van Houten, "les demandes d'allocations de chômage continueront à augmenter à mesure que l'activité économique s'arrêtera. Nous prévoyons 15 à 20 millions de pertes d'emplois dans les semaines à venir, le taux de chômage devant dépasser les 10 % en avril".
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