Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
L’Amérique a peur
CORONAVIRUS.
La confiance des consommateurs n’avait pas connu telle chute depuis l’effondrement de Lehman Brothers. Parallèlement, 33% des Américains déclarent être touchés directement ou indirectement par les conséquences économiques de l’épidémie de Covid-19.
Drapeau américain - Etats-Unis - bar
Avec 84.946 cas confirmés, dont 1.259 décès, les États-Unis sont désormais le pays le plus touché devant la Chine et ses 81.340 contaminations pour 3.292 décès. Ces chiffres ont poussé nombre d’Etats américains à opter pour des mesures de confinement en vue de ralentir la propagation du virus. Des mesures qui ne sont pas sans s’accompagner d’effets concrets sur l’économie comme nous avons pu le constater hier avec l’explosion des inscriptions hebdomadaires au chômage.
Sans surprise, on apprend, grâce à l’enquête - très suivie - de l’Université de Michigan, que la confiance des consommateurs a chuté de 11,9 points au mois de mars (elle atteint 89,1). C’est la quatrième baisse la plus importante en près de cinquante ans – et la sixième plus importante depuis la création de l’indice en novembre 1952. Il faut remonter au mois d’octobre 2008, c’est-à-dire au lendemain de la chute de Lehman Brothers pour retrouver trace d’une telle baisse – elle avait alors baissé de 12,7 points. Les deux autres chutes d’ampleur correspondent à l’Ouragan Katrina (12,2 points en septembre 2005) et la récession de 1980 (12,2 points en décembre 1980).
Nancy Vanden Houten, économiste d’Oxford Economics, tient à rappeler que ce déclin "sous-estime encore largement l'impact du coronavirus sur la confiance". De fait, elle souligne que "deux tiers des entretiens ont été réalisés avant le 11 mars, c’est-à-dire avant que les ordres de fermeture ne se généralisent, entraînant un arrêt brutal de l'économie".
Richard Curtin, le chef économiste en charge de cette enquête, voit la confiance des consommateurs se détériorer davantage. En effet, "il sera difficile de stabiliser la confiance à son niveau de fin de mois, compte tenu de l'augmentation du chômage et de la baisse des revenus des ménages. L'ampleur de la nouvelle baisse en avril dépendra de la mesure dans laquelle on réussira à freiner la propagation du virus et de la rapidité avec laquelle les ménages recevront des fonds pour soulager leurs difficultés financières", explique-t-il. Quand bien même des mesures seraient prises, ou sont en passe de l’être avec le plan de soutien à l’économie annoncé par Donald Trump, "l'atténuation des effets négatifs sur la santé et les finances pourrait freiner la montée du pessimisme, mais elle ne suscitera pas l'optimisme", analyse l’économiste.
Par ailleurs, un sondage publié par le Washington Post et NBC News – l’enquête a été menée entre le 22 mars et le 25 mars - révèle que 33% des Américains déclarent avoir perdu leur emploi ou posséder une personne de leur famille qui a perdu son emploi à cause du coronavirus. D'autre part, ils sont 66% à estimer que la récession induite par le Covid-19 que connaîtront les Etats-Unis sera de même ampleur ou pire que la crise financière mondiale de 2008 - 33% pensent qu'elle sera pire. Enfin, 69% des Américains jugent le coronavirus comme étant une source de stress - 36% estiment que c'est une cause sérieuse de stress.
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