Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
La Banque centrale chinoise surprend son monde
Berceau de l’épidémie, la Chine compte 81.439 cas et 3.300 morts. Le nombre de nouveaux cas journaliers s’étant réduit à peau de chagrin, l’Empire du Milieu semble avoir dompté l’épidémie de Covid-19 et a lâché du lest concernant les mesures de restriction telles que le confinement. En conséquence de quoi, la Chine redresse – très - lentement la tête comme en témoignent nombre d’indicateurs économiques à haute fréquence. De fait, selon les dernières données de Barclays, les contractions du secteur manufacturier et des services devraient respectivement atteindre 25% et 40% en glissement annuel pour le mois de mars – contre 50% et 70% en février. Les économistes de la banque britannique prévoient que le PMI manufacturier devrait rebondir à 42 contre 35,7 en février et celui des services à 40 contre 30,1 le mois dernier. Des secteurs qui se situent donc toujours en territoire de contraction, même si le plus dur paraît derrière eux.
C’est dans ce contexte encore délicat que la Banque populaire de Chine (PBoC) a décidé de rendre encore plus accommodante sa politique monétaire. Alors qu’elle a multiplié les annonces de politique monétaire favorables à l’activité économique ces derniers mois en vue d'atténuer les effets de l'épidémie de Covid-19 sur l'économie réelle, elle vient d’annoncer aujourd’hui avoir baissé son taux d’intérêt sur les opérations de prises en pension à sept jours. Il a été abaissé de 20 points de base, à 2,20% contre 2,40% précédemment. C’est la baisse la plus forte en cinq ans et un niveau encore inédit pour ce taux d’intérêt directeur. Cette baisse s’est accompagnée d’une injection de liquidités de cinquante milliards de yuans dans le cadre d’une opération de prise en pension de titres à sept jours. Concrètement, la PBoC prête des liquidités aux banques qui en font la demande et qui remplissent les conditions pour y accéder. Les banques fournissent du collatéral à la PBoC (titres d’Etat par exemple) en échange de liquidités de la PBoC qu’elles s’engagent à rembourser dans une durée de 7 jours majorées d’un taux d’intérêt (2,20% en l’occurrence). Elles récupèrent leur collatéral au moment du remboursement.
Selon Iris Pang, chef économiste chez ING, cette baisse des taux et l’injection de liquidités sont plutôt surprenantes en ce sens que "la PBoC a cessé d'injecter des liquidités dans le système depuis le 16 mars et a même retiré 33 milliards de yuans de liquidités le 28 mars, un jour ouvrable avant cette injection". Selon l’économiste, cette manœuvre vise à prémunir la Chine d’une crise financière. Iris Pang évoque entre autres une augmentation des retards de paiements qu’on observe dans le secteur des crédits à la consommation. Elle précise que "la probabilité est extrêmement faible" mais que "la banque centrale essaie de maintenir cette probabilité aussi faible que possible en réduisant le taux d'intérêt sur les opérations de prises en pension à sept jours de manière préventive".
De manière plus prospective, Iris Pang estime que le mouvement d'assouplissement n'est pas terminé et escompte qu'"il pourrait y avoir une réduction du taux de la facilité de prêt moyen terme à un an (MLF) au plus tard le 20 avril et du taux préférentiel des prêts un an le 20 avril"
Plus globalement, la plupart des économistes estiment que la Chine devrait voir son PIB en volume croître de 3% lors de l’année 2020, contre 6% avant la survenue de l’épidémie de Covid-19.
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