Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
20 millions d'emplois nets détruits aux États-Unis
Les États-Unis se trouvent loin devant les autres pays en ce qui concerne le nombre de contaminations par le Covid-19. À l’heure où nous parlons, elles ont atteint 189.618 tandis que le nombre de décès vient de passer la barre des 4.000 – 4.076. Et les différents observateurs économiques de s’efforcer de mesurer l’impact économique des mesures de restrictions mises en place par les différents États américains.
Les effets sur le marché de l’emploi américain sont parmi les plus scrutés depuis que Steve Mnuchin, le secrétaire d'État au Trésor, a évoqué le chiffre de 20% de chômage et que le président de la Réserve fédérale de Saint-Louis, James Bullard, a, lui, parlé d’un taux de chômage de 30% à court terme. Dans le détail, la Fed de Saint-Louis a mené une étude où le chiffre de 32,1% ressort. Son auteur, Miguel Faria-e-Castro, précise que cette estimation repose sur beaucoup d’hypothèses. Aussi, il associe à cette prévision, un intervalle compris entre 10,5% et 40,6% pour le taux de chômage des États-Unis à la fin du second trimestre 2020.
Oxford Economics, lui, se concentre sur un laps de temps plus court. C’est le nombre de destructions d’emplois d’ici la fin du mois d’avril qui fait l’objet de l’étude menée par l’économiste Lydia Boussour. Tout d’abord, l’étude rappelle que 229 millions d’Américains – sur une population d’environ 330 millions – répartis sur 26 Etats, sont touchés par une forme plus ou moins rigoureuse de confinement. Alors que les inscriptions hebdomadaires du chômage ont connu un pic la semaine dernière – 3,283 millions –, il est possible d’en tirer les destructions d’emplois associées. Lydia Boussour explique qu’il faut multiplier ces inscriptions – réalisées pour la première fois – par un chiffre compris entre 1,1 et 1,3 afin d’estimer l’ordre de grandeur des destructions nettes d’emplois. Étant donné qu’il est, selon le consensus, très probable que l’on assiste à des inscriptions hebdomadaires au chômage comparables chaque semaine qui vient, les destructions nettes d’emplois associées pourraient être comprises entre 13,2 millions et 15,6 millions durant le mois d'avril – trois millions multipliés par quatre et par 1,1 et 1,3.
Et encore, ce pourrait être le bas de la fourchette. S’appuyant sur une approche bottom-up, Lydia Boussour explique que les États-Unis pourraient subir des destructions nettes d’emplois dépassant les 20 millions sur le seul mois d’avril. Quels seraient les secteurs les plus touchés ? Sans surprise, le secteur des loisirs, de l'hôtellerie, le commerce de détail ou encore les transports. Concrètement, près de 50% des destructions nettes auraient lieu dans le secteur de l’hébergement et de la restauration.
Sociologiquement, ce sont les travailleurs au bas de l'échelle des salaires qui seront les plus affectés, puisque travaillant en grande partie dans ces secteurs. Par ailleurs, les licenciements seront le fait des petites et moyennes entreprises compte tenu de leur vulnérabilité face aux problèmes de trésorerie. Ce n'est pas étonnant, Lydia Boussour rappelle qu’environ la moitié des créations nettes d’emplois dans le secteur privé aux États-Unis sont le fruit des entreprises de moins de 500 salariés.
Selon Oxford Economics, le taux de chômage devrait bondir à 12% - contre 3,5% actuellement – au mois d’avril.
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