Macro-économie / Taux

L'Apocalypse selon Bank of America

CORONAVIRUS. La banque américaine prévoit une perte de richesse inédite depuis 1945 pour l'Oncle Sam.

PAR Yoann Defrance

Bank of America

Le 19 mars paraît bien loin pour les Etats-Unis. À cette époque le Covid-19 était à l’origine de 9.415 contaminations et de 150 décès. Depuis lors, les contaminations liées au coronavirus ont été multipliées par vingt-six (245.540 cas) et les décès par quarante (6.053 décès). Entre-temps, les autorités américaines ne sont pas restées les bras ballants et nombre d’Etats ont mis en place des mesures plus ou moins draconiennes (confinement, interdiction des rassemblements, fermeture des écoles).

Le 19 mars est le jour où Bank of America Global Research (BofA) avait publié ses prévisions de croissance pour l’Oncle Sam sur l’année 2020. Sans surprise, les chiffres n’ont rien à voir avec ceux qu’elle vient de dévoiler au sein de son nouveau jeu de prévisions. De fait, en glissement trimestriel annualisé, le PIB en volume de l’Oncle Sam devrait décroître de 7%, lors du premier trimestre, de 30% lors du deuxième trimestre, de 1% au troisième puis rebondir fortement de 30% lors du quatrième trimestre. Pour rappel, le 19 mars, ces chiffres atteignaient respectivement 0,5%, -12%, 3%, 4%.

Concrètement, la perte cumulée en termes de PIB devrait s’élever à 10,4% (à la fin du troisième trimestre et donc avant le rebond). C’est une perte deux fois plus élevée que celle connue après la crise financière mondiale de 2008 (4%) et cinq fois plus importante, en moyenne, que celles connues durant les récessions ayant eu lieu depuis la fin de la Seconde Guerre mondiale. Sur une base annuelle, c’est 2.000 milliards de dollars qui devraient partir en fumée entre la fin 2019 et le plus bas niveau du PIB en 2020 – c’est-à-dire à la fin du troisième trimestre. Plus globalement, sur l’année 2020, BofA prévoit désormais un recul de 6% du PIB en volume contre une baisse de 0,8% dans ses prévisions du 19 mars. "Nous n’avons jamais connu un tel choc, une partie de l'économie est plongée dans le coma", explique BofA.

Par ailleurs, et alors que viennent d’être portés à notre connaissance le taux de chômage et les créations d’emplois pour le mois de mars (4,4% contre 3,5% en février soit la plus forte hausse depuis janvier 1975 et 701.000 destructions d’emplois), BofA s’attend à ce que le taux de chômage atteigne 15,6 % au deuxième trimestre. Une hausse qui devrait se traduire par des pertes d'emplois cumulées atteignant 20 millions. Et le plan de soutien budgétaire de Donald Trump dans tout cela ? "Nous pensons qu'il y a plus à venir. Compte tenu de la gravité du ralentissement économique, nous pensons qu'il faudra davantage de mesures de relance budgétaire", explique la note. La banque s'attend à un plan de soutien budgétaire supplémentaire compris entre 2.000 et 2.500 milliards de dollars, si bien que "la réponse budgétaire totale de Washington (sans compter la Fed) pourrait se situer entre 3.000 et 5.000 milliards de dollars ou entre 15 et 25 % du PIB, poussant le déficit à des niveaux sans précédent".

Pour 2021, la banque américaine prévoit une croissance de 6,1% du PIB en volume.

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France : l'amélioration des comptes ne cache pas les handicaps structurels

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