Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
La Banque du Japon lâche les chevaux
Les bourses asiatiques sont aux anges même si c’était relativement attendu. Certains observateurs avaient jugé timide la première réponse formulée par la Banque du Japon face à la pandémie de Covid-19. Elle s'est efforcée, ce matin, de corriger le tir avec ses nouvelles annonces de politique monétaire.
Si elle a laissé son taux directeur inchangé - celui qui pèse sur les réserves des banques déposées auprès de la BoJ - à -0,10%, elle a en revanche annoncé avoir significativement dopé ses programmes de rachats d’actifs. De fait, à l’image de l’annonce de la Réserve fédérale américaine du mois dernier, la BoJ a supprimé son plafond annuel pour ses rachats d'obligations publiques japonaises. Un plafond qui était fixé à 80.000 milliards de yens (près de 745,9 milliards de dollars) depuis octobre 2014.
Par ailleurs, la BoJ a annoncé augmenter le montant de ses achats d'obligations d'entreprises et de billets de trésorerie ("commercial paper") jusqu'à ce que les achats combinés de ces actifs atteignent 20.000 milliards de yens (186,5 milliards de dollars). Des annonces qui visent, entre autres, à assouplir les conditions financières qui "ont été moins accommodantes comme le montre la détérioration de la situation financière des entreprises", a déclaré la BoJ. De plus, elle a assoupli les conditions de son programme de prêts - à 0% à un an -aux institutions financières nommé Special Funds-Supplying Operations to Facilitate Financing in Response to the Novel Coronavirus, en élargissant les collatéraux éligibles puisque des actifs tels que la dette privée ou celle des ménages le deviennent désormais, et en facilitant l'accès à ce programme à davantage d'institutions financières.
D’autre part, elle a présenté ses nouvelles prévisions pour l’économie nippone en termes de croissance et d’inflation. La BoJ anticipe désormais une contraction du Produit intérieur brut (PIB) nippon comprise entre 3% et 5% sur l'exercice fiscal 2020/21 entamé le 1er avril, alors qu'elle s'attendait - fin janvier - à une croissance aux alentours de 0,9%. Pour 2021, l'économie japonaise devrait toutefois rebondir en 2021/22, avec une croissance comprise entre 2,8% et 3,9%, selon la BoJ.
Concernant les prix, l’institution de Tokyo anticipe leur décrue en 2020/21, avec une baisse des prix à la consommation (hors produits frais) comprise entre 0,3% et 0,7%, contre une inflation autour de 1% prévue fin janvier. Par la suite, l'inflation devrait repartir en 2021/22, mais très faiblement (entre 0% et 0,7%) selon la BoJ, qui espérait encore un taux de 1,4% sur cette période fin janvier. Une cible d’inflation de 2% à moyen terme – inscrite dans le mandat de la BoJ – qui s’éloigne donc un peu plus… "cela prendra du temps, mais notre politique visant cet objectif de 2% n'a pas changé", a voulu rassurer, Haruhiko Kuroda, le Gouverneur de la BoJ.
Ce dernier a précisé que "la crise actuelle pourrait avoir un impact négatif plus important que le choc Lehman". Et alors que le gouvernement japonais a annoncé un plan de soutien budgétaire de 1.100 milliards de dollars, le gouverneur a appelé à des synergies entre l'action budgétaire et monétaire : "le gouvernement et la banque centrale doivent évidemment travailler ensemble, en particulier dans un moment comme celui-ci".
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