Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Marchés : une euphorie en trompe-l’œil
Les bourses européennes et américaines connaissent un véritable rallye depuis plusieurs semaines, qui favorise une reprise en V improbable. Les investisseurs sont curieusement prêts à passer outre les piètres résultats des corporates grâce aux liquidités historiques versées par les banques centrales.
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Le plan de relance européen tant attendu est désormais sur la table et ambitieux, une enveloppe de 750 milliards d’euros pour venir en aide à l’Union. Et cela a sans surprise fait bondir le CAC 40 de près de 2 % mercredi, soit une progression de 6 % en l’espace de trois séances, tandis qu’outre-Atlantique, le Dow Jones a ouvert en hausse de 1 %. La poussée soudaine de certains titres peut s’expliquer dans le cas de Renault (+14 %), qui a dévoilé son projet pour l’alliance avec Nissan et Mitsubishi, mais paraît exagérée par rapport aux résultats d’Elior (+12 %) ou encore Ipsos, sans actualité (+13 %). La poursuite de la réouverture des économies partout dans le monde crée un sentiment d’euphorie, et l’immense espoir d’un retour à la normale après le coup d’arrêt du confinement. Sévèrement punies au cœur de la crise, les banques ont été les premières à bénéficier de ce rallye, BNP Paribas s’adjugeant par exemple près de 8% ce mercredi.
Pourtant, les récentes publications de résultats trimestriels n’ont fait que montrer l’ampleur du choc subi par les entreprises, dans presque tous les secteurs d’activité. Selon les projections de Refinitiv, les bénéfices des entreprises du Stoxx600 devraient chuter de 50,8% au deuxième trimestre 2020, soit la pire performance depuis la création de cet indice en 2012. Et encore de 37,3% au troisième trimestre. Ces perspectives sont plus mauvaises que le mois passé, ce qui montre que les analystes penchent pour une dégradation de l’activité, avant un possible redressement. Or, les investisseurs ont une réaction tout autre : le CAC 40 a bondi de 25% depuis mi-mars, soit le début du confinement, et même de 35% pour le Dow Jones, alors que le consensus table désormais sur une chute de 20 % des profits du S&P 500 en 2020.
Le marché semble parier sur un scénario de reprise en V, qui verrait un redémarrage rapide et fort de l’économie, avec un retour à une production maximale et une demande enthousiaste de consommateurs, par effet de rattrapage sur les précédents mois. Or, ce n’est plus le scénario partagé par la grande majorité des économistes, ni celui d’une récession prolongée en U, mais plutôt celui d’une reprise lente et progressive, une virgule semblable au logo de Nike. De façon surprenante, alors que les investisseurs se focalisent en général sur les projections de profits et dividendes pour acheter ou vendre, ils favorisent aujourd’hui un espoir de retour à la vie d’avant, où la pandémie ne serait qu’un lointain souvenir, alors que le corps médical répète à l’envi que nous devrons tous vivre avec ce virus.
Autre explication : les liquidités astronomiques déversées par les banques centrales, qui ont racheté des titres souverains mais aussi corporates, et même élargi leur politique pour intégrer du high yield dans certains cas. Le bazooka historique de la BCE et la Fed a fonctionné, c’est-à-dire que les rendements ont chuté drastiquement et cela a orienté les investisseurs vers les actions, malgré la dégradation des perspectives des entreprises. Le krach des marchés a donc été réglé à court terme, mais les banques centrales sont désormais soumises au piège de la sortie de cet argent facile.
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