Macro-économie / Taux

Les employeurs sont optimistes pour les embauches

Selon une récente étude de ManpowerGroup, 54% des employeurs interrogés pensent que l’emploi retrouvera son niveau d’avant crise d’ici à avril 2021

PAR Bertrand De Meyer

immeuble bureau - immobilier - travail - emploi

Mercredi, en détaillant le troisième projet de loi de finances rectificative devant les députés, Bruno le Maire a indiqué que le gouvernement anticipait la suppression de 800.000 emplois en France dans les prochains mois. Pire, l’INSEE a annoncé une destruction de 500.000 emplois au premier trimestre 2020 dans l’Hexagone. Loin d’être un cas isolé, la France s’inscrit dans un paysage global de l’emploi dévasté, comme le dévoile une étude de ManpowerGroup. Les 34.000 entreprises des 43 pays que couvrent l’étude indiquent toutes des intentions d’embauche en baisse par rapport à avril 2019, quand 35 d’entre elles s’attendent même à réduire leurs effectifs. Le Royaume-Uni rapporte les plus faibles intentions d’embauche depuis la création de l’étude en 1992, tout comme la France. Pour autant, les pays les plus touchés sont Singapour, le Costa Rica, la Colombie, le Pérou et l’Afrique du Sud (entre -17% et -28%), tandis que la Chine, le Japon, l’Inde, Taïwan et les États-Unis s’en sortent le mieux avec des chiffre positifs allant de 3 à 11%.

Malgré ces chiffres, c’est l’optimisme qui étonne. 54% des employeurs interrogés pensent que l’emploi retrouvera son niveau d’avant crise d’ici à avril 2021, ils sont mêmes 33% à imaginer un retour à la normal dès janvier 2021 et 24% dès juillet 2020 ; 25% déclarent "ne pas savoir". Tous les secteurs ne sont d’ailleurs pas en crise. Ainsi, les perspectives d’embauche ont augmenté pour les prochains mois dans l’agriculture à cause de la saison des récoltes, alors que les transports ou la communication font partie des secteurs les plus en crise.

Cette dimension sectorielle est une clé de lecture des embauches de demain. Jonas Prising, PDG de ManpowerGroup, résume : "normalement, les changements structurels du marché du travail prennent des mois, voire des années, à avoir des conséquences. Nous croyons que cette crise va accélérer les transformations que nous avons repérées et prédit depuis quelques temps". Ces transformations, centrées autour du numérique et des opportunités qu’elle crée, risquent de bouleverser profondément le marché du travail. Patrick Artus corrobore dans un Flash Economie cette vision : "la structure sectorielle de l’économie va être fortement modifiée, ce qui implique que les emplois ne vont pas être recréés là où ils sont détruits".

Cette modification structurelle pose alors la question du retour au travail des employés en chômage partiel. Le déversement d’une partie des travailleurs de certains secteurs vers les secteurs liés au numérique et plus flexibles ne peut se faire sans l’acquisition de compétences. Ce qui pousse le directeur des études et de la recherche de Natixis à remettre en question la pertinence du chômage partiel : "il faut donc un mécanisme nouveau, qu’on peut appeler chômage partiel-reconversion, requalification". Si les inquiétudes sur l’emploi occupent la majorité du discours des dirigeants, les entreprises sont plus optimistes. La question de la formation, essentielle au retour à des niveaux d’embauche équivalents à ceux d’avant crise, reste toutefois en suspens avec les mesures prises jusqu’ici.

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France : l'amélioration des comptes ne cache pas les handicaps structurels

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