Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Les quatre risques financiers pointés par le FMI
On le sait depuis hier, le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) a significativement revu à la baisse sa prévision de croissance pour l’économie mondiale. Selon l’institution de Washington, le Produit intérieur brut (PIB) mondial devrait reculer de 4,9% en 2020. Cette contraction sans nul autre pareil pourrait violemment exposer au grand jour les vulnérabilités du système financier qui se sont accumulées ces dix dernières années. En effet, dans son nouveau Global Financial Stability Report, le FMI pointe quatre vulnérabilités de la finance mondiale qui pourraient être très fortement affectées par la dégringolade de la croissance mondiale.
On l’a répété maintes et maintes fois : depuis la fin de la crise financière mondiale, l’endettement a augmenté beaucoup plus vite que la richesse nationale dans la plupart des pays. Un phénomène qui n’a épargné personne, puisqu’Etats comme entreprises et ménages sont concernés. Concrètement, la dette cumulée des ménages et des entreprises atteint plus de 250% du PIB aux Pays-Bas et environ 200% du PIB en France, au Canada ou encore en Chine. Au regard de la crise économique et des baisses de revenus qui lui sont associées, cet endettement massif est évidemment inquiétant. Si depuis le début de cette crise, les Banques centrales (y compris celles de nombreux pays émergents) déversent des quantités historiques de liquidités pour faciliter les refinancements en pesant à la baisse sur les taux d’intérêt, et ont investi la plupart des marchés d’actifs (la Fed va même jusqu’à acheter de la dette émise par les collectivités locales américaines), elles ne peuvent pas empêcher tous les défauts. Ainsi, s’appuyant sur les données de l’agence de notation Standard and Poor’s, le FMI fait état de 100 défauts d’émetteurs obligataires depuis le début de l’année soit un rythme record depuis la crise financière mondiale de 2009 (qui comptait environ 140 défauts à ce moment de l’année).
Plus globalement, les défauts ne seront, sans surprise, pas sans conséquence sur le secteur bancaire. Si le FMI estime qu’au regard de plusieurs variables telles que les fonds propres, les banques apparaissent solides, il avance que cette crise du coronavirus sera un test sérieux pour évaluer leur résilience. Le système financier non-bancaire (compagnies d'assurance, fonds d’investissement ou les sociétés de courtage) pourrait également pâtir des défauts et même jouer le rôle d’amplificateur de stress si une large vague d’insolvabilité se faisait jour, selon le FMI. Par exemple, un choc important sur les prix des actifs pourrait entraîner des sorties importantes des fonds d'investissement, qui pourraient, à leur tour, déclencher des ventes massives de la part des gestionnaires de ces fonds, et ainsi faire bondir la volatilité.
Le dernier risque qui retient l’attention de l’institution de Washington est celui des émergents. En effet, certaines économies émergentes et non des moindres (la Turquie, l’Afrique, le Chili ou encore l’Egypte) disposent de faibles réserves de change (les avoirs en devises détenus par les Banques centrales), compte-tenu des événements qui pourraient les contraindre à les mobiliser (chute du taux de change, engagements libellés en monnaie étrangère). Ce low level of reserve adequacy, comme l'appelle le FMI, rend ainsi ces économies particulièrement vulnérables en cas de sorties massives de capitaux. Des fuites qui pourraient avoir comme source la dégradation, par les agences de notation, des notes souveraines émergentes. Le FMI relève qu'à ce jour plus d'un tiers des économies émergentes exportatrices de pétrole ont vu leur note être dégradée contre environ un quart pour celles qui n'exportent pas d'or noir.
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