Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
La dette mondiale a explosé durant la crise du coronavirus
En réponse à la récession de 2020 due à la crise sanitaire et les mesures prises pour endiguer la circulation du virus, la dette mondiale a progressé de 36 000 milliards de dollars.
Liasse de dollars - Leemage via AFP
Depuis le début du Covid, la dette mondiale a progressé de près de 36 000 milliards de dollars, pour atteindre en tout 296 000 milliards de dollars. Une grande partie, voire la totalité de cette augmentation, a été absorbée par les Banques centrales, qui ont acheté massivement des obligations en raison des importants besoins de financement des États qui devaient préserver leurs économies. Selon l’Institute of International Finance (IIF), d’ici 2030, la dette mondiale pourrait dépasser 360 000 milliards de dollars.
Dans le détail, la dette se répartit comme suit : celle des entreprises non financières au deuxième trimestre de 2021 s’élève à 86 200 milliards de dollars, soit 29,12 % de la dette totale mondiale, celle des gouvernements à 85 700 milliards (28,95 %), la dette du secteur financier à 68 800 milliards (23,25 %) et celle des ménages à 55 300 milliards (18,68 %). Le ratio dette/PIB mondial a diminué pour la première fois depuis le début de la crise sanitaire : il est passé de 362 % au premier trimestre de 2021 à 353 % au deuxième trimestre de 2021. Cette baisse est principalement attribuable à une belle reprise de l’activité économique. Toutefois, cette dernière n’a pas été suffisamment forte pour rapporter les ratios d’endettement en dessous des niveaux pré-Covid.
La crise sanitaire, la baisse des taux d’intérêt et les perspectives de faibles taux durant les prochaines années alimentent cette escalade de l’endettement. Il est à noter que c'est depuis 2008, les dettes publiques augmentent et sont alimentées principalement par la mise en place de politiques monétaires accommodantes. Elles se caractérisent par l’injection massive de liquidités par les banques centrales et des taux d’intérêt proche de 0 (voire négatifs). La crise du coronavirus n’a donc fait qu’accentuer une tendance déjà existante.
Cette situation peut fragiliser l'économie mondiale. En effet, compte tenu de la reprise économique, les Banques centrales se posent la question de la remontée de leurs taux directeurs. Or, ces hausses de taux entraîneront mécaniquement une charge plus lourde de la dette, puisque les futurs emprunts qui serviront à rembourser les dettes antérieures se feront à des taux plus élevés.
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