Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
L'immobilier américain est également atteint par l'inflation
Après une forte hausse des mises en chantier de logement neuf pendant les périodes de fortes transmissions du Covid-19, la construction ralentit. Elle n'est pas épargnée par les problèmes actuels qui affectent l'ensemble de l'économie : l'inflation, les difficultés d'approvisionnement et le manque de personnels.
Grue non migratoire - Valérie Pinard / Hans Lucas / Hans Lucas via AFP
Les mises en chantier aux États-Unis ont chuté de 1,6 % en septembre 2021 par rapport à août, passant ainsi de 1,580 million à 1,555 million. Cependant, au regard du mois de septembre 2020, ce chiffre est en hausse de 7,4 %. Grâce aux taux historiquement bas et au développement du télétravail, le secteur de la construction était dans une bonne dynamique pendant les périodes de forte circulation du virus. C’est au mois de mars 2021 que le pic avait été atteint, avec 1,725 million de logements mis en chantier. C’est le plus haut niveau depuis juillet 2006. Ainsi, les capacités de production des constructeurs sont au maximum et évoluent sur un plateau élevé depuis 2021. C’est pourquoi il n’y a pas de progression des mises en chantier et des permis de construire, d’après les économistes d'Oddo BHF.
Les permis de chantier ont également chuté, plongeant de 7,7 % en septembre. Ce qui n’augure pas de bonnes perspectives, puisque cet indicateur permet de prévoir du nombre des chantiers qui seront lancés par la suite. En effet, les matériaux de construction subissent l’inflation à cause des difficultés mondiales d’approvisionnement. De plus, les employeurs peinent à recruter. Enfin, malgré le déploiement du télétravail qui incite les familles à sortir des villes, la hausse des prix commence à refroidir les acheteurs potentiels. Cependant, le moral des constructeurs s’est amélioré en octobre, comme le prouve l’indice NAHB du marché immobilier américain, en expansion et même supérieur aux attentes des analystes. D’ailleurs, selon Paul Jackson, responsable global de la recherche en allocation d’actifs à Invesco, "la relance est devant nous", s’exprimant à propos de l’immobilier. Pour lui, ce dernier sera plus performant que les actions. Cette relance pourrait continuer à être stimulée par la forte demande.
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