Macro-économie / Taux / Gero Jung / Mirabaud Asset Management
Macro-économie / Taux
Gero Jung / Mirabaud Asset Management
L'année 2023 vue par... Gero Jung /
Chef économiste de Mirabaud Asset Management
EXCLUSIF.
WanSquare a demandé à des économistes et des dirigeants de grandes entreprises de livrer leur vision pour 2023 après une année 2022 marquée par les chocs inflationniste, énergétique, géopolitique et monétaire. Chaque jour nous publions leurs réponses aux questions que vous vous posez. Une série à lire, partager et conserver précieusement.
Gero Jung - DR
Quelles sont vos perspectives pour l’économie mondiale ? Avez-vous élaboré plusieurs scénarios selon l’évolution de la guerre en Ukraine ?
Le scénario le plus probable pour l'économie globale reste que la dynamique de hausse va se poursuivre, mais de manière nettement plus faible. La croissance mondiale en 2023 ralentira sous son potentiel, mais les Etats-Unis pourraient éviter de justesse une récession au vu de la bonne tenue des chiffres de l’emploi. Ces derniers laissent espérer que le resserrement monétaire en cours pourrait suffire à ralentir l’inflation sans pour autant entraîner des destructions massives d’emploi. L’Europe entrera vraisemblablement en récession au quatrième trimestre, mais cette dernière pourrait rester limitée si l’hiver est clément.
Le ralentissement économique chinois vous préoccupe-t-il ?
En Chine, la croissance devrait rebondir cette année. La levée progressive des restrictions à la mobilité et la sortie de la politique de tolérance zéro vis-à-vis du Covid constituera un élément de soutien important à l’économie domestique et favorisera une reprise de la consommation dès le printemps. Pour l’instant, avec la hausse des nouvelles contaminations les confinements pèsent sur l’économie, et la réouverture sera vraisemblablement irrégulière, le temps que les gouvernements locaux s’ajustent et adoptent cette nouvelle politique. Les mesures prises pour faciliter l’accès au financement des développeurs immobiliers et la reprise des projets ainsi que le biais expansionniste de la banque centrale constituent également des éléments de soutien pour l’investissement.
L’inflation actuelle, d’où qu’elle vienne (matières premières, pénuries multiples, hausses de salaires), a-t-elle franchi son pic ?
Le pic sur l’inflation sous-jacente a été atteint aux Etats-Unis et les pressions sur les prix entament une lente phase de modération qui se poursuivra tout au long de l’année 2023. La baisse de la demande de biens mondiale, la normalisation des chaînes d’approvisionnement et la réduction des délais de livraison alimenteront la modération du prix des biens. Dans le secteur des services, les prix de la santé devraient continuer de bénéficier d’effets de base favorables. En milieu d’année prochaine, la récente modération des loyers visible selon certaines enquêtes avancées publiées par des agences immobilières américaines devrait se transmettre aux données relatives à l’hébergement, ce qui contribuera au ralentissement de l’inflation. Ces éléments devraient inciter la Fed à ralentir son rythme de hausse de taux et entamer une pause dans le resserrement monétaire dès le deuxième trimestre 2023, pour évaluer son impact sur l’économie.
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