Macro-économie / Taux / GB / UK / Kwarteng
Macro-économie / Taux
GB / UK / Kwarteng
Cap difficile à tenir pour le Royaume-Uni
Le Royaume-Uni est ballotté de toute part, son économie et sa monnaie sont en situation délicate, et pour y remédier le nouveau gouvernement vient de dévoiler son plan de bataille. Le ministre des Finances Kwasi Kwarteng n'a cependant pas suscité l'unanimité et nombre d'observateurs doutent de la viabilité à long terme de ces mesures.
Kwasi Kwarteng, le ministre des finances britannique. Samantha Saskia Dugon/ZUMA/REA
À peine a-t-il dévoilé les baisses d'impôts qu'il compte mettre en place, que Kwasi Kwarteng, le ministre des Finances britannique, est déjà sous le feu des critiques. Andrew Goodwin, chef économiste pour le Royaume-Uni chez Oxford Economics, est très circonspect quant à la capacité du Chancelier à arriver par cette politique à concilier une hausse de la croissance à moyen terme du Royaume-Uni avec une réduction du ratio de la dette publique. Il affirme même "qu'il est très peu probable que cet objectif soit atteint" et parle également d'absence "d'une stratégie crédible à long terme pour les finances publiques".
Trancher dans le vif
Il faut dire que c'est un flux important de recettes que l'exécutif britannique sacrifie sur l'autel de la croissance ; on parle d'un coût estimé par le Trésor à 36 milliards de livres en 2023-2024 et qui augmenterait à 44 milliards de livres en 2026-2027. Ce dernier chiffre représentant l'équivalent de 1,5 % du PIB.
Ces estimations ne sont cependant pas à prendre pour argent comptant, Kwasi Kwarteng ne s'est pas montré particulièrement prolixe sur le plan des prévisions en détaillant son "plan de croissance". Il n'en a tout simplement pas fait et a semblé par moments davantage faire du détricotage des réformes mises en place auparavant plutôt que proposer de nouvelles mesures. Paul Johnson, directeur de l'’Institute for Fiscal Studies, évoque ainsi des annonces qui auront pour impact d'annuler "une grande partie des hausses d'impôts introduites par Johnson et Sunak, et les annulent toutes pour les ménages aux revenus les plus élevés".
Quel horizon ?
Sans remettre en cause l'effet bénéfique de cette politique de réduction drastiques de divers impôts, c'est davantage l'interrogation sur le fait que ces réductions d'impôts "[soient] conçues pour être permanentes, et non temporaires" qui taraude Andrew Goodwin. Sur le principe il estime qu'étant "donné que l'économie flirte avec la récession, les réductions d'impôts destinées à soutenir la demande ne sont pas nécessairement une mauvaise idée", mais sur le long terme l'équation risque d'être bien plus compliqué à justifier et à rendre pertinente.
Paul Johnson est tout aussi peu emballé, parlant même d'un plan qui "semble consister à emprunter des sommes importantes à des taux de plus en plus élevés, à placer la dette publique sur une trajectoire ascendante insoutenable et à espérer que la croissance s'améliore".
Les marchés se sont également montrés peu emballés et la monnaie du royaume en a d'ailleurs immédiatement pâti, Oxford Economics parle de son côté de "la livre sterling [comme] étant la soupape de sécurité la plus évidente", ce qui amène le cabinet à anticiper "que la livre sterling continuera à dériver vers le bas, aux alentours de 1,05 dollar à court terme".
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