Macro-économie / Taux

Le shutdown impacte aussi les M&A et IPO

Alors que Donald Trump a encore accentué la pression lors de son intervention hier soir, le dénouement du shutdown ne semble pas se profiler. Si cette situation perdure, elle risque de mettre en péril des opérations M&A en cours, mais aussi le pipeline des IPO pour 2019.

PAR De New York, Anne-Laure Peytavin

Le shutdown a déjà un coût non négligeable pour l’économie américaine : 1,2 milliard de dollars sur le PIB du pays par semaine de fermeture, selon Standard & Poor’s. Mais ce n’est pas tout, les dommages collatéraux atteignent aussi les corporates américains, désireux de finaliser leurs acquisitions ou encore de lancer leur process d’introduction en Bourse. Or, avec la fermeture partielle de l’administration fédérale – et notamment de la SEC, le gendarme boursier américain -, certains groupes se retrouvent bien en peine pour obtenir les autorisations requises et boucler leurs M&A.

Ainsi en est-il par exemple du groupe pharmaceutique Eli Lilly, qui a annoncé l’an passé un spin-off de sa division de santé animale, Elanco Health Animal, et a organisé son IPO à 1,5 milliard de dollars. Depuis, la maison mère prévoit de vendre les 81 % qu’elle détient encore, mais est pour l’instant dans l’incapacité technique de le faire. "Nous avons besoin que la SEC soit ouverte pour cela. C’est un problème", a déclaré Dave Ricks, CEO d’Eli Lilly, à Bloomberg mardi. Deux autres groupes, Eclipse Resources et Blue Ridge Mountain Resources, ont également reporté la date de finalisation de leur fusion à 900 millions de dollars afin de "donner plus de flexibilité aux parties en raison du shutdown". Le CFIUS (Committee on Foreign Investment in the US), chargé d’étudier les achats de cibles américaines par des étrangers, a de son côté suspendu la durée officielle d’examen des deals, qui est normalement établie à 45 jours, ce qui pourrait ralentir les opérations en cours.

Par ailleurs, la fenêtre de tir des IPO se rétrécit pour le premier trimestre, en raison de l’inertie des autorités boursières. Les candidats dégainent en général leur prix d’entrée avant le 14 février, date à partir de laquelle ils sont tenus de fournir leurs audits 2018. Or, "la fenêtre pour fixer un prix d’ici au 14 février se referme et si les gens ne peuvent faire leurs opérations d’ici là, il y a des chances pour que nous perdions une bonne partie des IPO du premier trimestre", a commenté David Goldschmidt, patron des activités de marchés dans le cabinet d’avocats Skadden Arps. Aujourd’hui, il est désormais probable qu’aucune IPO n’ait lieu en janvier 2019, ce qui ne s’est produit que trois fois depuis 1995, selon Dealogic.

Et cela pourrait même empirer car si le shutdown perdure pendant encore deux semaines, l’administration aura pris un retard conséquent pour toutes les opérations en vue, y compris celles déjà annoncées d’Uber ou de Lyft par exemple. Dara Khosrowshahi, le CEO d’Uber, a voulu relativiser cet enjeu, expliquant que le groupe de VTC n’était pas tenu de faire cette IPO à tout prix. "La bonne nouvelle est que nous avons un bilan solide donc nous n’avons pas besoin d’entrer en Bourse cette année (…) C’est un désir, mais si ça ne se passe pas, ça ne se passe pas. Je serais déçu et je pense que nos actionnaires aussi mais la société irait très bien". Car pour l’instant, c’est l’impasse au plus haut niveau de l’État : après l’intervention télévisée de Donald Trump hier soir qui a réitéré le besoin "critique" de financer le mur, les leaders démocrates l’ont fustigé pour "tenir les Américains en otage".

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