Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Pour Sigmar Gabriel, "l'amitié franco-allemande ne suffit pas"
Revenant sur le traité d'Aix la Chapelle, signé la semaine dernière entre Angela Merkel et Emmanuel Macron, l'ancien vice-chancelier Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) estime en ce début de semaine dans une tribune relayée par le Handelsblatt que "l'amitié franco-allemande ne suffit pas". "Berlin et Paris n'ont pas les mêmes intérêts et devraient arrêter de mettre leurs partenaires européens de côté", estime-t-il notamment.
"Les Allemands ne doivent pas oublier le fait que les accords entraînent une stratégie politique en désaccord avec la volonté allemande de long terme d'équilibrer l'amitié avec la France d'une part ainsi que de fortes relations transatlantiques avec les États-Unis et le Royaume-Uni d'autre part", note-t-il notamment. Sigmar Gabriel ne veut pas pour autant nier l'utilité de l'accord, mais il estime qu'il ne faut cependant pas y accorder trop d'importance, d’autant plus que les deux pays "voient le monde différemment". Par ailleurs, "il y a des raisons de s'inquiéter de comment les autres capitales européennes vont percevoir le nouvel accord", souligne l'ancien ministre, qui ajoute qu'il risque d'être vu comme "un deal bilatéral qui exclut tous les autres".
"Le traité de l'Élysée symbolisait la fin de l'inimitié entre l'Allemagne et la France. Mais avec le traité d'Aix la Chapelle les deux pays sont allés plus loin que cela. Ils ont affirmé leur volonté d'éviter une implosion de l'UE". Problème : les deux pays n'ont pas exactement les mêmes intérêts. Notamment sur le Brexit : "alors que l'Allemagne serait prête à accepter un retournement complet pour préserver l'équilibre de l'UE, la France peut voir le retrait de la Grande-Bretagne comme une opportunité d'augmenter son poids politique, économique et militaire relatif au sein de l'UE." Il conclut : "dans un monde de carnivores géopolitiques, nous, les Européens, sommes les derniers végétariens. Sans le Royaume-Uni, nous allons devenir vegans et une proie possible. Ce qui est important ce n'est pas 'l'autonomie stratégique' mais la préservation de la souveraineté européenne dans un contexte international en mouvements. La France et l'Allemagne doivent s'engager toutes les deux pour cet objectif. L'amitié franco-allemande est nécessaire pour l'Europe ; mais ne va pas suffire à garantir notre place dans le monde."
Malgré le léger ralentissement de la croissance outre-Rhin, le pays reste confiant pour l'année 2019. Le Handelsblatt rapporte ainsi que "le gouvernement fédéral s'attend à un taux d'emploi record". Dans les faits, le taux de chômage devrait tomber à 4,9 %, selon les données publiées dans le rapport annuel du gouvernement. Le nombre de personnes en activité devrait,lui, augmenter pour atteindre 45,2 millions. "Cependant, le gouvernement a revu ses prévisions de croissance pour 2019 à la baisse, à 1%", précise également le site du quotidien. Dernièrement, il était encore estimé à 1,8%. "La grande coalition s'attend cependant à ce que la croissance allemande reste sur une courbe positive", ajoute le journal. Le rapport explique : "au vu des salaires et de l'emploi croissant, tout comme les investissements des entreprises, l'économie intérieure devrait demeurer un soutien important de la conjoncture." "Les revenus privés devraient, en raison du développement du marché du travail, continuer à augmenter", à hauteur de 4,8 % pour les salariés. Une fois de plus, c'est la demande extérieure qui est dans la ligne de mire pour justifier la baisse de croissance : l'Allemagne craint plus que tout une chute des exportations dans cette période "d'eaux troubles".
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