Macro-économie / Taux

Quel est l'impact des taux négatifs sur les épargnants ?

Dans une période où les taux d'intérêt obligataires à 10 ans sont négatifs, les épargnants pâtissent des faibles taux de rendement et la pérennité des fonds euros se trouve gravement menacée.

PAR Anthony Morlet-lavidalie

Obligation - bonds

Depuis le discours de Mario Draghi à Sintra, le 18 juin dernier, les rendements obligataires sont entrés dans une nouvelle ère. Le mois dernier, seule l’Allemagne empruntait à taux d’intérêt négatif, et ce, depuis mars 2019. En annonçant que la BCE serait prête à tout pour sauver l’Union monétaire, la France, l’Autriche, la Finlande et les Pays-Bas ont vu leur taux d’intérêt à 10 ans plonger sous la barre des 0 %. Un phénomène qui interroge sur les conséquences pour les épargnants et sur la pérennité des fonds euros.

Dans une interview accordée à WanSquare, Hugo Bombard, le directeur scientifique de la fintech Nalo (spécialisée dans le conseil en investissements financiers), analyse la situation comme étant délicate pour les particuliers, précisément pour ceux dont l’épargne est investie en fonds euros. "En moyenne les rendements d’actifs actuels n’excèdent pas 1 % pour des frais moyens de 0,8 %".

Le véritable risque concerne les deux ou trois prochaines années. L’accroissement continu de la masse monétaire par les banques centrales est un vice car si les méthodes de création monétaire sont bien connues, celles permettant d'aspirer le surplus de liquidité sont bien plus obscures. C’est une sorte de système à cran où l’on ne peut pas revenir en arrière. Et cette tendance pourrait très vite générer de nouvelles pressions inflationnistes.

Il existerait alors deux scénarios possibles. Soit la remontée des taux d’intérêt est lente et maîtrisée ce qui ne donnera pas lieu à des effets de foule. Soit les taux s’élèveront fortement et de nombreux épargnants se détourneront des fonds euros. Contrairement aux fonds obligataires qui renouvellent leurs actifs de manière régulière, les fonds euros conservent les obligations jusqu’à la fin de leur maturité. Ces derniers seraient alors gravement menacés en cas de remontée des taux d'intérêt. Les épargnants fuiraient les fonds euros constitués d'emprunts d'État peu rentables au profit de fonds d'investissement détenant de la dette nouvellement émise dont le taux de rendement serait nettement supérieur.

Du côté des investisseurs, une manière efficace de se protéger face à de potentiels chocs macro-économiques est d’acheter des obligations indexées sur l’inflation, par exemple en passant par des fonds obligataires ou des ETF. Malgré un environnement de taux bas, les investissements ne sont pas condamnés à des rendements nuls. La plus-value est à aller chercher sur les marchés émergents, qu’ils s’agissent d’obligations d’États ou d’entreprises. Ce sont des placements profitables pour lesquels le risque reste modéré.

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01/01/1970 - 01:00

France : l'amélioration des comptes ne cache pas les handicaps structurels

01/01/1970 - 01:00

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Conditions générales de vente

01/01/1970 - 01:00

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JE M’ABONNE POUR DEUX ANS

01/01/1970 - 01:00

Les banques françaises menacées par la Russie

01/01/1970 - 01:00