Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
2019 et 2020 vues par Frédéric Oudéa
Le patron de la Société Générale nous livre ses espoirs pour l’année qui commence. Il clôt ainsi cette série de bilan de fin d’année et de prospective pour 2020, commencée le 23 décembre dernier, et à laquelle ont participé les plus grands dirigeants français d’entreprises et les meilleurs économistes du Pays.
Frédéric Oudéa
1 - Que retenez-vous de l'année 2019 ?
2019 restera à mon sens l’année de la confirmation de la fragilité des démocraties marquée par la montée des populismes. Les péripéties autour du Brexit, la crise des gilets jaunes en France, la fragmentation politique et la marginalisation de nombreux partis traditionnels en Espagne, en Italie et en Allemagne en sont quelques exemples qui me viennent à l’esprit. C’est évidemment aussi vrai au-delà des frontières de l’Allemagne. 2019 aura également été marquée par la prise de conscience collective des enjeux liés à la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique dans laquelle les banques françaises et Société Générale en particulier sont très engagées.
2 - Que redoutez-vous ou qu'espérez-vous pour 2020 ?
J’espère que l’Europe sera en mesure de faire des avancées significatives avec l’arrivée de la nouvelle commission, en particulier dans notre secteur en ce qui concerne l’Union des Marchés de Capitaux et l’achèvement de l’Union Bancaire. Et ceci en dépit des incertitudes politiques nationales qui pourraient paralyser certains gouvernements. 2020 est une année cruciale pour l’avenir de l’Europe.
Ce que je redoute le plus serait un accident géopolitique mal contrôlé, qui pourrait avoir, sans même envisager le pire en termes de conflits localisés, des répercussions et conséquences négatives sur les économies et les marchés financiers.
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