Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Le taux de chômage de la France au plus bas depuis 11 ans
La baisse inattendue de 0,4 point au dernier trimestre 2019 bénéficie à une large partie de la population.
Muriel Pénicaud
Le taux de chômage s'est établi à 8,1% en France (département d'Outre-mer inclus, hors Mayotte) à la fin du quatrième trimestre de l’année 2019, soit un recul de 0,4 point par rapport au trimestre précédent. Il passe même sous la barre des 8% en métropole en atteignant 7,9%. Il faut remonter au dernier trimestre de l’année 2008 pour trouver un chiffre plus faible. Le taux de chômage atteignait alors 7,4%, avant que la crise financière mondiale ne produise ses effets.
La baisse observée fin 2019 dépasse largement les attentes des analystes, qui prévoyaient en moyenne sur un taux de chômage de 8,5% fin décembre. L'Insee aussi est surpris comme l'explique Sylvain Larrieu, chef de la division synthèse et conjoncture du marché du travail au sein de l'institut : "on est un peu surpris de l'ampleur mais ça reste dans la continuité du mouvement observé depuis 2016".
Dans le détail, le nombre de chômeurs a diminué de 85.000 sur le trimestre, à 2,424 millions de personnes. Par rapport au trimestre précédent, ce sont les personnes de 25-49 ans et de 50 ans ou plus qui bénéficient le plus de cette baisse : elle est de 0,5% pour les deux catégories. Parmi les seniors, il baisse plus fortement pour les femmes (- 0,7 point) que pour les hommes (- 0,3 point) alors que pour les 25-49, la baisse est similaire (- 0,4 point). Au total, par rapport à la fin de l’année 2018, la baisse du taux de chômage est plus marquée pour les femmes (- 0,8 point) que pour les hommes (- 0,4 point).
Par ailleurs, trois éléments sont à retenir. Le chômage de longue durée (plus d'un an) a reculé de 0,4 point sur un an, tout comme la part du sous-emploi - c'est-à-dire des personnes qui souhaitent travailler davantage, comme les employés à temps partiel - baisse de 0,5 point. Enfin, le taux d'emploi, c'est-à-dire la proportion des 15-64 ans qui travaillent, a progressé de 0,4 point sur un an à 65,9%, un record depuis que l'Insee le mesure.
Depuis qu’Emmanuel Macron est devenu président de la République, le taux de chômage a baissé 1,4 point de pourcentage – il était de 9,5% au deuxième trimestre 2017. Reste à savoir si la résorption du chômage va se poursuivre dans les temps à venir. Julien Manceaux, économiste senior chez ING, explique qu’"en 2020, nous prévoyons que la tendance positive du marché du travail se poursuivra au cours du premier semestre et soutiendra la demande intérieure. Néanmoins, l'année 2020 devrait encore se terminer avec un taux de chômage légèrement plus élevé, proche de 8,5 % (8,2 % pour la France métropolitaine)." De quoi contrarier l'engagement d'Emmanuel Macron de le ramener à 7% en 2022 ? "Il est encore trop tôt pour dire que l'objectif de 7 % en 2022 est hors de portée, mais pour cela, il faudrait que la reprise soit plus forte que prévu dès l'année prochaine", décrypte Julien Manceaux. De son côté, Muriel Pénicaud, la ministre du Travail, se veut résolument optimiste et a déclaré ce matin que l'objectif des 7% est "franchement atteignable".
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