Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Le Japon se contracte sous le poids de la TVA
L'Archipel a connu une sévère contraction de son PIB lors du dernier trimestre 2019. La hausse de la TVA aura une fois plus été fatale à l'économie nippone.
Shinzo Abe - Japon
Au quatrième trimestre 2019, l'économie japonaise a connu la pire chute de son produit intérieur brut (PIB) depuis cinq années. En glissement trimestriel, le PIB nippon en volume s’est contracté de 1,6% au quatrième trimestre de 2019. Cela faisait cinq trimestres que le PIB japonais ne s’était pas contracté. Une contraction plus importante que prévu, puisque les prévisionnistes s’attendaient à une baisse de 0,9%. Sur l'année 2019, le Japon aura vu son économie croître de 0,7%.
C'est la hausse de la TVA survenue en octobre dernier qui explique ces médiocres performances, en plus des typhons meurtriers. La TVA a été augmentée de 2 points de pourcentage, passant de 8% à 10% sur la plupart des biens et services. En conséquence de quoi, la consommation des ménages s’est effondrée. Elle qui pèse 285.628,6 milliards de yens en volume (2.590 milliards de dollars) représente près de 53% du PIB japonais et elle s’est contractée de 3% par rapport au trimestre précédent. L’investissement privé non résidentiel, qui pèse 16%, a lui aussi significativement baissé – de 3,7%. Finalement sur le trimestre, seuls l’investissement public et la consommation publique auront crû – de 0,2% et 1,1%, respectivement. Déjà en 2014, l’augmentation de la TVA – de trois points de pourcentage - avait généré une contraction du PIB de 1,9% lors du deuxième trimestre. La consommation des ménages avait alors baissé de 4,9%. Cette fois-ci, le gouvernement de Shinzo Abe semble avoir quelque peu appris de ses erreurs puisqu’il a mis en place des mesures compensatoires, qui n’ont toutefois pas suffi à enrayer la chute de la consommation des ménages.
Désormais, c’est une autre menace à laquelle doit faire face le Japon : le coronavirus. De fait, la Chine est le premier partenaire commercial du Japon, ils échangent près de 300 milliards de dollars de biens et services par an. Le Japon y exporte pour 134 milliards de dollars, soit 2,6% du PIB nippon. Selon Takashi Shiono de Credit Suisse Securities, "des répercussions massives du coronavirus sont à redouter sur le secteur des services". Haruhiko Kuroda, le Gouverneur de la Banque du Japon, prend l’épidémie très au sérieux, à tel point qu’il la qualifie de "plus grande incertitude" pour l’Archipel. Il a ajouté que de nouvelles mesures monétaires accommodantes seraient prises "sans aucune hésitation" si le risque lié au virus s’intensifiait.
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