Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Le coronavirus fait s'effondrer les émissions de CO2 en Chine
C'est le constat établi par l'organisme Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, sur les deux dernières semaines. Une baisse équivalente à 6% des émissions mondiales sur la même période.
Grande muraille de Chine
Si le coronavirus a de nombreux effets délétères et tragiques, la planète, elle, y gagne quelque peu. La consommation énergétique de la Chine a conduit ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre à dégringoler par rapport à l'an dernier, selon une étude réalisée par le Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).
Sur les deux dernières semaines (du 3 au 16 février), les émissions chinoises de CO2 approchent 300 millions de tonnes ; elles étaient de l’ordre de 400 millions de tonnes en 2019. En effet, "la réduction de la consommation de charbon et de pétrole montre une baisse d'au moins 25% des émissions sur une période comparable". Cela représente une baisse d'environ 1% des émissions annuelles de la deuxième économie mondiale (autour de 10 milliards de tonnes par an) et de 6 % des émissions mondiales sur la même période – lesquelles se situent autour de 40 milliards de tonnes de CO2 par an.
Comment expliquer cette baisse ? D’après le CREA, la consommation de charbon dans les centrales thermiques est à son plus bas niveau depuis quatre ans et la production des aciéries sur quatorze jours connaît son plus bas niveau en cinq ans. Par ailleurs, les mesures par satellite du NO2, un polluant atmosphérique étroitement associé à la combustion des combustibles fossiles, confirment une nouvelle fois la réduction de l'utilisation des combustibles fossiles. En effet, dans la semaine qui a suivi les vacances du nouvel an chinois en 2020, les niveaux moyens étaient inférieurs de 36 % en Chine par rapport à la même période en 2019.
Au-delà de ces aspects à court terme marquants, il s'agit de savoir si cela est amené à se pérenniser. On peut en douter. En effet, l’étude explique que "la politique économique chinoise consiste à prendre en compte la croissance prévue de la consommation privée et des exportations nettes, et à la soustraire de l'objectif de croissance du PIB. Le résidu est le montant des dépenses d'investissement liées à la dette qui est nécessaire pour atteindre l'objectif". Aussi, il faut savoir que parmi ces composantes du PIB, "l'investissement est de loin le plus intensif en CO2, en raison de l'énergie utilisée pour fabriquer l'acier, le ciment, les métaux non ferreux, le verre et d'autres matériaux de construction de base". Par conséquent, si le gouvernement central devait être amené à doper l'investissement en vue de compenser la détérioration des perspectives de consommation et d'exportations, cela pourrait entraîner une augmentation globale des émissions de CO2, souligne Lauri Myllyvirta, l'auteur de l'étude.
Ce n'est pas le scénario le moins probable compte tenu des récentes annonces du gouvernement chinois sur les plans budgétaire et monétaire.
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