Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Moody's maintient sa notation mais dégrade les perspectives de la France
Le couperet vient de tomber. L'agence de notation Moody's a abaissé les perspectives de la France de positives à stables, bien qu'elle ait maintenu la notation dans la catégorie Aa2. Lorsqu’elle s’était intéressée de près au cas de la France en mai 2018, la firme américaine avait amélioré ses perspectives de stables à positives. À l'époque, le gouvernement avait pour objectif de réduire le ratio de la dette publique en dessous de 90 % du PIB d'ici 2022, en transformant progressivement les déficits budgétaires récurrents en un excédent d'ici 2022. Un temps qui paraît bien lointain.
En effet, comme l’explique aujourd'hui le Sénat : "Alors que le programme de stabilité 2018 anticipait un solde public excédentaire de 0,3 % du PIB en 2022, le gouvernement prévoit désormais un déficit de 1,5 % du PIB." Un objectif que le gouvernement atteindra uniquement s’il fait davantage d’efforts pour faire ralentir le rythme de croissance des dépenses publiques par rapport à celui du PIB en valeur, souligne Moody’s. Une manœuvre "peu probable" d’ici la fin de mandat du gouvernement en raison "du haut niveau de mécontentement social qui était au cœur des protestations des Gilet jaunes", estime l'agence de notation. La firme américaine évoque également les appels à la dépense publique qui se font de plus en plus sentir dans le secteur de la santé, en l’occurrence les dépenses supplémentaires pour les hôpitaux.
Aussi, Moody’s prévoit que le déficit public se stabilise autour de 2 à 2,3% du PIB au cours des prochaines années, plutôt que de diminuer davantage. La dette publique, elle, devrait rester également stable, juste au-dessous de 100% du PIB. Un niveau nettement supérieur aux pays notés Aa1, et supérieur aux anticipations de mai 2018, rappelle Moody’s. Sur une note plus positive, l'agence de notation américaine estime la France peut compter sur de solides fondamentaux. Aussi, elle explique que le taux d’intérêt auquel la France emprunte reste faible (-0,25% à dix ans à l'heure nous parlons) et devrait le rester même si la Banque centrale européenne devait relever son taux d'intérêt directeur. De plus, l'exposition de l'Hexagone à des risques politiques ou extérieurs est très faible. Enfin, Moody’s juge que les réformes engagées amélioreront la compétitivité, l'efficacité du marché du travail et les perspectives de croissance économique à moyen terme.
Que peut-on attendre de l'évolution de la France par Moody's dans les temps à venir ? L'agence de notation explique qu'au regard de ce retour à des perspectives stables, "les pressions à la hausse sur la notation sont limitées à ce stade". Néanmoins, les perspectives pourraient de nouveau devenir positives et la notation se voir améliorée si "les paramètres budgétaires et de la dette de la France s'amélioraient sensiblement, grâce à des mesures structurelles plus importantes du côté des dépenses", déclare Moody's. Au contraire, la note serait soumise à une pression baissière si "les réformes mises en œuvre depuis 2017 étaient inversées au cours des prochaines années, avec des implications négatives à moyen terme pour la croissance" ou encore si "les récentes tendances budgétaires devaient s'inverser, entraînant une nouvelle augmentation du ratio de la dette publique déjà élevé."
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