Macro-économie / Taux

Le moral des investisseurs européens est particulièrement chahuté

Selon plusieurs enquêtes, il atteint un plus bas depuis d'obscures périodes telles que la crise des dettes souveraines et la crise financière de 2008.

PAR Yoann Defrance

Drapeaux européens

Le moral des investisseurs allemands a dégringolé en mars. Le Covid-19 l’a fait plonger à son plus bas niveau depuis décembre 2011, selon le baromètre de l'institut ZEW. 2011, une année qui renvoie aux déboires connus par la zone euro lors de la crise des dettes souveraines. Il a atteint -49,5 points en mars, soit 58,2 points de moins que le score du mois de février, sa plus forte baisse depuis la création de l'indicateur en décembre 1991. Il fait pire que les prévisions du consensus des analystes de Factset, qui tablaient sur une chute de 33 points.

La composante mesurant la situation actuelle de la conjoncture allemande chute elle aussi sur un mois, à -43,1 points, en baisse de 27,4 points par rapport à février. Cette forte baisse n'a rien d'étonnant pour Achim Wambach, président de l'institut ZEW car, "tous les signaux conjoncturels sont au rouge". "Les attentes conjoncturelles sont en chute libre", et le comble étant que "toutes les récentes mauvaises nouvelles n'étaient pas encore connues", lorsque l’enquête fut menée, explique pour sa part Jens-Oliver Niklasch, économiste pour la banque LBBW. C’est à celui qui prédira la récession la plus importante pour l'Allemagne du côté des conjoncturistes. Carsten Brzeski, économiste d’ING, estime que l’Allemagne devrait voir son économie décroître de 1,5% en 2020 tandis que Jack Allen-Reynolds, économiste senior chez Capital Economics voit une plutôt une contraction de 4% du PIB en volume.

L'indice ZEW n'est pas plus rassurant pour la zone euro dans son ensemble. En effet, l'indice plonge de 59,9 points par rapport à février, pour atteindre -49,5 points également – la pire performance depuis la crise financière mondiale. La semaine dernière - le 9 mars -, l’indice Sentix envoyait le même message que l’indice ZEW puisqu'il indiquait que le moral des investisseurs dans la zone euro avait chuté - en mars - à son plus bas niveau depuis avril 2013. Son indice du moral des investisseurs avait reculé à -17,1 après 5,2 le mois dernier quand les analystes l’attendaient à -11,1.

Selon Maddalena Martini, économiste chez Oxford Economics, ces chiffres confortent l’idée "d’une zone euro en profonde récession lors du premier semestre 2020". Toutefois, elle précise que son intensité dépendra "de l'ampleur des mesures d'endiguement prises par les gouvernements ainsi que de l'ampleur et de l'efficacité des mesures budgétaires prises par les pays". A ce propos elle note qu’"il est encourageant de constater que les derniers jours ont apporté des nouvelles positives de l'Allemagne et de la France sur ce front, même si d'autres mesures seront nécessaires". Les pays européens s'efforcent de solliciter le levier budgétaire, la Commission européenne estime à 1% du PIB de la zone euro - environ 120 milliards d'euros - les mesures adoptées. "Ce chiffre sera sûrement amené à monter très bientôt", a ajouté Paolo Gentiloni, le commissaire européen aux affaires économiques.

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