Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Les pays émergents inquiètent Standard and Poor's
Depuis le début de la crise du Covid-19, le regard des observateurs économiques se concentre essentiellement sur les effets de la pandémie au sein des économies avancées. À tort, car les enjeux sont également importants pour ce qui est des économies émergentes. S&P vient de publier une note où elle dresse un état des lieux inquiétant à propos de ce qui se produit déjà ou ce qui attend les pays émergents.
Du côté de la zone EMEA (Europe, Moyen-Orient et Afrique), S&P explique qu’entre les pays qui tirent leur richesse des matières premières ou ceux qui bénéficient du tourisme, la plupart verront leur croissance économique sévèrement impactée. D’autant plus avec les mesures de confinement qui se durcissent. De plus, le soutien budgétaire apparaît peu lisible jusqu'ici et la politique monétaire paraît avoir peu de marges de manoeuvre après les baisses de taux déjà annoncées, selon S&P.
Au sein de la zone Asie Pacifique, la consommation discrétionnaire sera mise à mal par les mesures de restriction, tandis que les blocages dans le monde entier entraîneront l'effondrement du tourisme et des dépenses qui y sont connexes. S&P prévoit une croissance de 3% pour les pays de la zone, soit la plus faible depuis 22 ans. Les mesures budgétaires annoncées par les gouvernements devraient être en mesure d’atténuer le choc et la politique monétaire devrait encore être mobilisée selon l’agence de notation américaine. S&P prévient que le risque majeur est la poursuite de la propagation du virus, ce qui aurait des conséquences désastreuses au regard de la qualité inégale des systèmes de santé selon les pays.
Enfin, en Amérique Latine, le PIB en volume devrait reculer de 1,3% - la plus forte baisse depuis la crise financière mondiale. Si S&P se félicite de la célérité avec laquelle des mesures de distanciation sociale ont été prises en Argentine, au Chili et en Colombie, il en va autrement du Brésil et du Mexique qui ont, selon elle, tardé. Le Mexique inquiète particulièrement S&P en ce sens qu’en plus d’avoir pris du retard dans la mise en place de mesures sanitaires pertinentes, l'économie souffrait de vulnérabilités "structurelles" avant l’apparition du virus.
Plus largement, S&P s’inquiète des conditions financières qui se durcissent au sein des économies émergentes. De fait, le manque de visibilité et la hausse de l’aversion au risque liée au Covid-19 ont provoqué une fuite vers la qualité - les investisseurs se réfugient vers les actifs les plus sûrs à l'image des bons du Trésor américains. Concrètement, les spreads obligataires émergents se sont tendus à un niveau et une vitesse records depuis 10 ans selon S&P. Ces sorties de capitaux "significatives" génèrent au moins deux problèmes. D’une part, elles influent à la hausse sur les taux d’intérêt des obligations émises par les pays émergents, ce qui rend peu aisé les refinancements. D’autre part, cela pèse à la baisse sur leurs devises, en conséquence de quoi des pressions inflationnistes se font sentir.
Face à cela, les banques centrales émergentes font face à un dilemme auquel elles se retrouvent souvent confrontées lors des épisodes de crise de change. Relever les taux d’intérêt directeurs en vue de combattre l’inflation naissante et soutenir la devise au risque d'accélérer la dégradation du tissu productif, ou les abaisser pour assouplir les conditions financières mais au prix d’une inflation galopante ?
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