Macro-économie / Taux

Les investisseurs de la zone euro ont le moral dans les chaussettes

CORONAVIRUS. Alors que l'Europe paraît approcher du pic de l'épidémie, les investisseurs, eux, voient leur moral toucher un plus bas historique.

PAR Yoann Defrance

Drapeaux européens

Les regards sont en train de se tourner vers la réunion de l’Eurogroupe qui aura lieu demain, alors que l’Europe compte 675.580 contaminations et 50.209 morts liées au coronavirus. Mais pendant ce temps, les investisseurs sont toujours dans l’incertitude vis-à-vis de la crise sanitaire liée au Covid-19 et des dégâts économiques qu'elle aura fait subir à l'économie des Dix-neuf, au travers des mesures de confinement. Une incertitude qui a entraîné l'effondrement de leur moral dans la zone euro, tel que mesuré par l’indice Sentix, le faisant toucher son plus bas niveau historique au mois d'avril.

Concrètement, cette enquête menée entre le 2 et 4 avril auprès de 1.173 investisseurs fait état d’une chute de l’indice de confiance pour la zone euro à -42,9 après -17,1 au mois de mars. C'est une dégringolade significativement pire qu'attendu puisque les prévisionnistes le voyaient, en moyenne, atteindre -30,3. "La situation est (...) bien pire qu'en 2009", s'alarme Patrick Hussy, directeur de l'institut Sentix. "Les prévisions économiques actuelles sous-estiment le processus de contraction. La récession sera beaucoup plus forte et plus longue", ajoute-t-il. "Jamais auparavant le jugement sur la situation actuelle ne s'était effondré aussi brusquement dans toutes les régions du monde en un mois seulement", alerte Patrick Hussy.

Pour la zone euro plus spécifiquement, Katharina Coenz, assistante économiste chez Oxford Economics, explique que "la chute encore plus importante que prévue de l'indice de confiance souligne que le pire est encore à venir" pour les Dix-neuf. "Jamais auparavant l'évaluation de la situation actuelle n'avait été aussi négative que ce mois-ci, l'indice ayant chuté de -17,1 à -66,0", analyse-t-elle. Toutefois, sur une note plus positive, Katharina Coenz remarque qu’alors "que l'indice global et la sous-composante 'situation actuelle' ont atteint des niveaux historiquement bas, la composante "attentes", plus prospective, a augmenté de 4,2 points, ce qui indique que l'impact du coronavirus devrait être un phénomène temporaire". Les investisseurs seraient-ils en train d'entrevoir la lumière au bout du tunnel ?

Même si l'indice Sentix capture le sentiment des investisseurs et a donc tendance à être volatil à l'image des marchés financiers, il ne fait que confirmer les enquêtes - historiquement catastrophiques - au plus proche de l'économie réelle, que sont celles qui furent menées auprès des directeurs d'achat (PMI) durant le mois de mars. Ces enquêtes faisaient état d'un véritable effondrement du secteur manufacturier et surtout de celui des services. Plus globalement, selon Katharina Coenz, les données issues de l'indice Sentix indiquent que la zone euro se trouve actuellement dans le creux de la vague. Un creux qui devrait être à l'origine d'"une contraction à deux chiffres du PIB au cours du premier semestre 2020", si bien que "les économies italiennes et espagnoles sont celles qui devraient le plus souffrir avant que la reprise ne s'installe".

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