Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Les remises migratoires devraient s’effondrer en 2020
C’est le tragique constat fait par la Banque mondiale à propos de ces transferts d’argent vitaux pour nombre de pays en développement.
Planète - globe - mappemonde - mondialisation
C’est l’une des conséquences économiques les plus dramatiques du Covid-19. Si les économies avancées sont particulièrement affectées par la pandémie et paient un lourd tribut humain et économique, les pays en développement ne seront pas épargnés puisque touchés en plein cœur. De fait, les remises migratoires, qui représentent la part des revenus gagnés à l’étranger que les migrants rapatrient dans leur pays d’origine, vont chuter de 19,7%% cette année, selon un rapport de la Banque mondiale. Elles devraient s'établir à 445 milliards de dollars cette année contre 554 milliards en 2019 - une année record. "La récession économique causée par le Covid-19 a de lourdes conséquences sur la capacité à envoyer de l'argent dans le pays d'origine et rend d'autant plus crucial de raccourcir le délai de reprise (de l'activité) dans les économies avancées", a alerté David Malpass, le président de la Banque mondiale.
Cette dégringolade, qui est la plus importante de l'histoire récente, est "largement due à une baisse des revenus et de l'emploi des travailleurs migrants, qui ont tendance à être plus vulnérables (...) lors d'une crise économique dans un pays d'accueil", a expliqué l'institution de Washington. Or, les remises migratoires sont vitales pour les pays en développement en ce sens qu’il a été empiriquement démontré qu’elles contribuaient à la diminution de la pauvreté ou encore à l’amélioration de la situation nutritionnelle.
Dans le détail, ces envois de fonds devraient chuter dans l’ensemble des régions du monde. La Banque mondiale anticipe une contraction particulièrement importante en Europe et en Asie centrale (27,5 %). Viennent ensuite l’Afrique subsaharienne (23,1 %), l’Asie du Sud (22,1 %), le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord (19,6 %), l’Amérique latine et les Caraïbes (19,3 %) et l’Asie de l’Est et le Pacifique (13 %).
Sur une note plus positive, la Banque mondiale prévoit un rebond des remises migratoires en 2021. Elles devraient atteindre 470 milliards de dollars, soit une progression de 5,6 %. La Banque mondiale précise toutefois que "faute d’éléments précis pour mesurer l’impact de la pandémie de COVID-19 sur les perspectives de la croissance mondiale et des mesures prises pour enrayer la propagation du virus, l’évolution des envois de fonds est difficile à anticiper".
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