Macro-économie / Taux

L'Amérique latine pourrait voir apparaître 30 millions de pauvres

Ce serait la conséquence de la pandémie de Covid-19, selon la triste prévision d’une commission de l’ONU. Explications.

PAR Yoann Defrance

Brésil - Sao Paulo - émergents - amérique

Les prévisions de la Commission économique pour l'Amérique latine et les Caraïbes (CEPALC), une commission régionale de l'Organisation des Nations unies (ONU), ont de quoi inquiéter. "La crise qui secoue la région en cette année 2020, avec une chute du PIB de 5,3%, sera la pire de toute son histoire", déplore l’agence des Nations unies basée à Santiago. La CEPALC ajoute que "pour trouver une contraction d'une ampleur comparable, il faut remonter à la Grande dépression de 1930 (-5%) ou à 1914 (-4,9%)". Le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) avait, lui, misé sur une contraction de 5,2% pour la région, d’après ses dernières prévisions du mois d’avril.

Dans le détail, l’Amérique du Sud verrait son PIB décroître de 5,2% en raison de la baisse d'activité de la Chine, qui est un marché important pour ses exportations. Parallèlement, la baisse en Amérique centrale est estimée à -2,3 %, affectée par un déclin du tourisme et une réduction de l'activité économique aux États-Unis, son principal partenaire commercial et source de transferts de fonds. Enfin, les Caraïbes devraient être en recul de 2,5%, en raison d'une baisse de la demande de services touristiques. La pandémie de Covid-19 aura conduit à "une réduction du commerce international, la chute des prix des matières premières, (...) un durcissement des conditions financières mondiales, une baisse de la demande des services touristiques et une réduction des ‘remesas’", les fameuses remises migratoires si cruciales pour ces pays.

En toute logique, cette crise économique va engendrer une détérioration significative du marché du travail. Le taux de chômage devrait atteindre environ 11,5%, soit une augmentation de 3,4 points de pourcentage par rapport à 2019 (8,1 %), selon l'agence onusienne - le nombre de chômeurs dans la région atteindrait donc 37,7 millions. Comme dans nombre d'économies dans le monde, c'est l'importance des petites et moyennes entreprises (PME) dans la création d'emplois - plus de 50 % de l'emploi formel - qui accroît l'impact négatif de cette crise économique sur le marché du travail.

Aussi, c’est donc dans un contexte de hausse du chômage et de décrue de la richesse produite que le taux de pauvreté dans la région devrait augmenter de 4,4 points de pourcentage en 2020, passant de 30,3 % à 34,7 %. Concrètement, ce serait donc 29 millions de personnes supplémentaires qui se trouveront en situation de pauvreté. Dans le même temps, l'extrême pauvreté, elle, augmenterait de 2,5 points de pourcentage, passant de 11,0 % à 13,5 %, ce qui représente une augmentation de 16 millions de personnes.

En conséquence de quoi, Alicia Barcena, la secrétaire exécutive de la CEPALC alerte qu’"il est urgent d'accéder à des ressources financières en se basant sur un soutien flexible des organismes financiers multilatéraux, accompagné de lignes de crédit à bas coût, d'un allègement du service de la dette et d'éventuelles annulations".

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