Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Le confinement inflige de sévères dégâts aux pays émergents
D’après les indicateurs à haute fréquence dont dispose la banque américaine Goldman Sachs pour mesurer le degré de restriction des mesures sanitaires – construits entre autres à partir des déplacements des utilisateurs de smartphones -, les pays émergents évolueraient 16% en dessous de leur niveau d’activité normal. Au sein des trois zones émergentes - Asie, Amérique latine et Europe centrale et de l’Est, Moyen Orient, Afrique - ce sont respectivement les Philippines, la Colombie et la Turquie qui affichent les mesures de restriction les plus fortes, d’après l’indicateur (Effective Lockdown Index) de la banque américaine.
Fort heureusement, ce niveau d’activité est appelé à remonter puisque les mesures de restriction devraient légèrement s’assouplir en mai et de manière plus significative en juin, explique Goldman Sachs. Reste que, le mal est fait et cela a amené la Firme à revoir à la baisse ses prévisions de croissance pour l’ensemble des économies émergentes. Au sein de la région Amérique latine, c’est le Mexique qui devrait décroître le plus vite (5,6%) en 2020. L’Afrique du Sud et la République Tchèque, elles, remportent la palme pour la zone CEMEEA (Europe centrale et de l’Est, Moyen Orient et Afrique) avec des reculs de 6%. En Asie, c’est la Thaïlande qui subirait la plus forte perte de richesse (6,6%).
Sans surprise, 2020 serait donc "la pire année depuis des décennies pour les pays émergents", d'après les mots de Standard and Poor's. Mais quel serait alors le profil de la reprise ? L'activité dans le secteur industriel et dans certaines parties des services où la "distanciation sociale" est moins préoccupante devrait rebondir relativement rapidement, selon la banque américaine. Elle précise néanmoins s’attendre à ce que la plupart des économies ne retrouvent pas leur niveau de PIB d'avant-crise avant 2021. En fait, cela dépendra en grande partie de l’efficacité des politiques économiques menées. Et à ce sujet, les pays émergents ne sont pas restés les bras ballants.
Sur le plan monétaire, Standard and Poor’s évoque une baisse médiane – parmi les économies émergentes - de 100 points de base du taux d’intérêt nominal directeur si bien que les taux d’intérêt réels (indicateur du degré d’accommodement de la politique monétaire) sont négatifs dans nombre de pays émergents (Chili, Inde, Afrique du Sud, Turquie, Colombie, Pologne et la Chine). Du côté de la politique budgétaire, les pays émergents ont ouvert les vannes mais dans une moindre ampleur que les économies avancées. La Pologne a mis 5 points de PIB sur la table quand le Mexique a injecté moins d’un point de PIB. Si l’on trouve des mesures de soutien au marché du travail, aux entreprises ou même des transferts d’argent aux ménages, il a moins été question de mettre en place des prêts garantis par l’Etat (au contraire des pays développés).
Des politiques économiques qui ont, au moins en partie, permis l’assouplissement des conditions financières au sein des pays émergents. Leurs taux de change se sont significativement dépréciés au mois d’avril, la livre turque a perdu 7,6% de sa valeur face au dollar quand le real brésilien s’est déprécié de 5,1%. Par ailleurs, après un pic en mars, les spreads de crédit se sont détendus - la région Amérique latine souffre des écarts de taux les plus élevés - et sont loin de leurs niveaux historiques (ils se situent à 1000 points de base pour le secteur high yield, contre plus de 2500 points de base au plus fort de la crise financière mondiale).
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