Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
L’activité économique hexagonale va - très - légèrement moins mal
Alors que le déconfinement a démarré hier dans l’Hexagone, l’activité économique, elle, a dû, non sans difficulté, s’y adapter pendant le mois d’avril et a délivré de moins mauvaises performances que lors de la dernière quinzaine de mars, d’après le dernier point de conjoncture de la Banque de France.
Cette enquête, menée entre le 28 avril et le 6 mai auprès de 8.500 entreprises ou établissements, fait à nouveau état d’une baisse importante de la production dans l’industrie. Le nombre de jours de fermeture exceptionnelle fut de 5 jours en moyenne lors du mois d’avril, avec une importante dispersion entre les secteurs. L’industrie pharmaceutique n’a connu qu’un jour de fermeture quand le secteur du matériel de transport en a connu onze. Sans surprise, les secteurs affichant les jours de fermeture les plus élevés ont les taux d’utilisation des capacités de production les plus faibles. Si ce dernier fut en moyenne de 46% en avril – un plus bas historique - dans l’industrie contre (77% en février et 56% en mars), il a atteint 67% dans l’industrie agro-alimentaire quand l’automobile a vu le sien s’effondrer à… 8% !
Du côté des services, le nombre moyen de jours de fermeture en avril varie entre 24 jours pour la restauration et l'hébergement et seulement un jour pour la programmation et le conseil, ainsi que pour le nettoyage. Nouveau mode de fonctionnement de nombre d’entreprises qui semble être amené à perdurer, la Banque de France a mis en évidence que les services ayant vu leur niveau d’activité se dégrader le plus faiblement sont ceux ayant recouru au télétravail de manière importante (plus 70% des effectifs en télétravail dans les secteurs de l’édition, de l’informatique et des activités juridiques et comptables).
Synthèse de l’ensemble de ces éléments et d’autres tels que la consommation d’électricité ajustée des températures, les paiements par carte bleue ou encore les retraits de billets auprès des DAB, la Banque de France estime que l’activité économique hexagonale du mois d’avril s’est contractée de 27% soit une hausse de 5 points de pourcentage après la baisse de 32% pour la quinzaine de confinement de mars. Si durant la deuxième moitié du mois de mars "l'économie française tournait aux deux tiers", en avril "elle est presque aux trois quarts", résume François Villeroy de Galhau, le Gouverneur de la Banque de France.
Quel serait donc l'impact du déconfinement sur l'activité économique ? L’économie pourrait regagner "une dizaine de points d'activité fin mai", a indiqué, François Villeroy de Galhau. Dans le détail, le point de conjoncture de la Banque de France rapporte que les chefs d'entreprise dans l'industrie prévoient que leur activité devrait retrouver 66% de leur niveau normal à la fin mai contre 52% en avril. Dans le secteur des services, l'activité devrait atteindre 59% de son niveau normal contre 52% en avril. C'est dans le bâtiment que la hausse est particulièrement saisissante puisque le niveau d'activité gagnerait 34 points de pourcentage entre avril et la fin mai - il atteindrait 58% de son niveau normal.
La Banque de France publiera durant la semaine du 8 juin ses projections macro économiques relatives à la France couvrant la période 2020-2022, ainsi que sa prochaine enquête mensuelle de conjoncture.
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