Macro-économie / Taux

Le Royaume-Uni recule de manière inédite depuis la crise financière

À l'image de nombre de pays, c'est le secteur des services qui explique les piètres performances de l'économie britannique. Et le pire est à venir au deuxième trimestre.

PAR Yoann Defrance

Londres - Angleterre

Le Royaume-Uni est l’un des pays les plus touchés par le Covid-19. Le nombre de morts a dépassé les 38.000 et le virus aura même frappé au cœur le gouvernement avec la contamination du Premier ministre britannique, Boris Johnson. Parallèlement, l’économie est en grave souffrance comme l’ont démontré les multiples indicateurs au cours de ces dernières semaines – à l’image de nombre de pays dans le monde, l’indice PMI composite a atteint un plus bas historique.

Aujourd’hui, c’est l’indicateur économique roi, le Produit intérieur brut, qui témoigne de la dégringolade de l’activité que connaît le Royaume-Uni. De fait, le PIB britannique en volume a reculé de 2% au premier trimestre (en glissement trimestriel), d’après les chiffres du Bureau national des statistiques (ONS). C’est le plus mauvais chiffre de croissance depuis la baisse survenue lors du quatrième trimestre 2008 (-2,1%) à la suite de la faillite de Lehman Brothers. En atteignant 513,273 milliards de livres, il retrouve le niveau qui était le sien au deuxième trimestre… 2018. Si l’activité a crû de 0,1% en janvier et a diminué de 0,2% en février, c’est au mois de mars qu’elle s’est véritablement effondrée, sous l’effet du confinement qui a débuté le 23 du même mois, puisqu’elle a reculé de 5,8% - un chiffre inédit depuis le début de la collecte des données en fréquence mensuelle en 1997.

Jonathan Athow, statisticien à l’ONS explique que quasiment "tous les compartiments de l'économie ont été touchés en mars". Certes, mais sur les 2% de recul de PIB, 1,55 point de pourcentage provient de la chute de l’activité dans les services. Une chute qui a atteint 1,9% sur les trois premiers mois de l’année et 6,2% sur le seul mois de mars. La grande majorité des secteurs ont été touchés, plus particulièrement l'éducation, le commerce de gros et de détail et la réparation de véhicules automobiles et de motocyclettes, les aliments et boissons, l'hébergement et les agences de voyage. Toutefois, un petit nombre de sous-secteurs tels que la programmation informatique ont vu leur activité croître, explique l’ONS.

Le pire reste à venir pour le Royaume-Uni. Si la Banque d’Angleterre prévoit une baisse du PIB de 14% sur l’ensemble de l’année, l’activité pourrait baisser d’un tiers au deuxième trimestre (35%) selon l’OBR (Office for Budget Responsability) et le taux de chômage atteindre 10%. "Avril devrait être le point bas" pour l'activité économique, selon Ruth Gregory, économiste chez Capital Economics. A moyen terme, "les perspectives d'une reprise en 'V' se sont éloignées depuis longtemps, et nous ne pensons pas que la taille de l'économie britannique reviendra aux niveaux d'avant le virus avant au moins 2022", analyse James Smith, économiste en charge des pays développés chez ING.

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France : l'amélioration des comptes ne cache pas les handicaps structurels

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