Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
L’économie britannique revient dix-huit ans en arrière
En avril, l’activité économique du Royaume-Uni évoluait 25% en dessous de son niveau d’avant-crise.
Londres - Angleterre
Avec 41.729 décès liés au Covid-19 (soit environ 6 morts pour 10.000 habitants), le Royaume-Uni détient le deuxième pire bilan mondial en termes de mortalité à la fois en valeur absolue (derrière les États-Unis) et relativement à la taille de la population (derrière la Belgique). Parallèlement, l’économie est particulièrement à la peine, comme le montrent les dernières estimations du Bureau national des statistiques (ONS) parues ce matin.
Selon l’ONS, l'économie britannique s'est contractée à un rythme record en avril par rapport à mars, avec une baisse de 20,4% du Produit intérieur brut (PIB). Sur la période allant de février à avril, le PIB a reculé de 10,35% par rapport aux trois mois précédents (novembre à janvier), soit la baisse la plus forte jamais enregistrée par l'ONS depuis 1997, date à partir de laquelle l'institut de statistique a commencé à publier des données en fréquence mensuelle pour le PIB. Entre le mois de février et avril, l’économie britannique a donc connu un recul de son PIB de 25%. Ainsi, en avril, l’économie britannique évoluait au niveau qui était le sien à l’été… 2002 !
Dans le détail, l’ensemble des secteurs de l’économie (les services, la production, l'industrie manufacturière et la construction) a connu un effondrement historique au mois d’avril. Secteur le plus affecté par les mesures de restrictions liées à la crise sanitaire, ce sont, sans surprise, sur le trimestre allant de février à avril (baisse de 10,35% du PIB), les services qui ont le plus contribué à la chute du PIB (pour 7,94 points de pourcentage). La déliquescence des services s’explique pour un tiers par la performance du secteur de l’éducation et du commerce de détail et de gros : ils ont respectivement décru de 18,8% et 14,5% sur le trimestre. La quasi-intégralité des 2,41 points de pourcentage restants de baisse du PIB est expliquée par la diminution de la production manufacturière (pour 0,98 point de pourcentage) et la baisse de l’activité de construction (pour 1,13 point)
Dans ses projections parues il y a deux jours, l’Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques (OCDE) estime que l’économie britannique devrait subir, cette année, une contraction de 11,5% de son PIB dans le scénario central et de 14% si une seconde vague de contamination venait à se produire. L’OCDE s’attend à un rebond de 9% en 2021 et de 5% dans le scénario le moins favorable.
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