Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
La dette américaine fait de nouveau florès
Alors que les non-résidents s’en étaient délestés au plus fort de la crise de la Covid-19, la dette américaine trouve à nouveau des acheteurs en dehors des États-Unis, surtout en Europe.
Drapeau américain - Etats-Unis - bar
Chaque mois, le Trésor américain publie des données sur les TIC (Treasury International Capital). Les TIC permettent d’en savoir plus sur les flux de capitaux entrants et sortants des États-Unis et également sur la nature des acquisitions faites par les non-résidents (obligations, actions, etc…). Pour le mois de juin, le Trésor vient tout juste de publier les chiffres.
Il en ressort, entre autres, qu’après s'en être délestés de 322,8 milliards de dollars entre février et avril à la suite du déclenchement de la crise de la Covid-19, les non-résidents ont plébiscité la dette publique américaine en juin, confirmant ainsi un mouvement d’achat débuté en mai. En juin, les étrangers détenaient pour 7 038,9 milliards de dollars de dette publique américaine (contre 6 904,3 milliards de dollars en avril), soit environ un tiers de la dette publique de marché totale des États-Unis (20 530 milliards de dollars au 30 juin 2020). Et près de 60% de ce montant est détenu par des institutions publiques étrangères (essentiellement les banques centrales à travers leurs réserves de change).
Ce sont ces dernières qui sont en grande partie à l’origine du regain d’intérêt pour la dette américaine - elles représentent plus de 70% de la hausse des détentions entre avril et juin. S’il est un secret de polichinelle que le Japon et la Chine sont les deux premiers créanciers étrangers des États-Unis (1 261,3 milliards de dollars et 1 074,4 milliards de dollars respectivement), ce ne sont pas les deux géants asiatiques qui se sont précipités sur la dette de l'Oncle Sam au deuxième trimestre. On retrouve en fait l’Irlande (29,1 milliards de dollars), qui est le quatrième créancier étranger des États-Unis, l’Inde (25,3 milliards de dollars), puis le Royaume-Uni avec 16,4 milliards de dollars. La zone euro, elle, a vu sa détention de dette publique américaine progresser de 52 milliards de dollars entre avril et juin. D'après nos calculs, si les Dix-neuf ne détiennent "que" 6% de la dette publique de marché américaine, leurs acquisitions ont tout de même représenté près de 40% des flux acheteurs au deuxième trimestre.
À l’inverse, lors du deuxième trimestre, le Canada a été le pays qui a le plus vendu la dette publique américaine (8,8 milliards de dollars), quand sur le seul mois de juin, c’est la France qui a effectué les achats nets les plus élevés, avec 13,7 milliards de dollars - rappelons que l'Hexagone est le quatorzième créancier étranger des États-Unis avec 144,2 milliards de dollars. À noter qu’entre avril et juin, les institutions publiques étrangères ont davantage ciblé leurs achats vers les Treasury Bills, ces titres de dette publique dont la maturité est d’un an maximum (pour 51,5 milliards de dollars), que vers les titres de plus long terme que sont les T-Bonds & Notes (43,4 milliards de dollars).
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