Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Le fonds souverain norvégien perd 18 milliards d’euros en six mois
Le plus grand fonds souverain mondial n’a pas échappé aux conséquences économiques de la pandémie. Alors que l’an dernier il réalisait plus de 150 milliards d’euros de gains, voilà qu'au premier semestre de l'année, les pertes s’élèvent à près de 18 milliards d’euros.
Fonds souverain norvégien
Le fonds souverain de Norvège, d’une valeur fluctuant autour de 1 000 milliards d’euros, est certes le plus grand représentant au monde de cette famille d'investisseurs ; il n'en est pas moins sensible aux fluctuations du contexte économique. Le Government Pension Fund-Global, alimenté par les revenus pétroliers de l’État norvégien, est chargé d’investir sur les marchés internationaux dans plus de 74 pays. Il possède des participations dans plus 9 200 entreprises dans le monde, avec 1,5 % de toutes les actions cotées. Ce fonds est aussi investi dans les marchés obligataires et immobiliers. À ce titre, il n'a pas été immunisé aux conséquences de la pandémie.
Au premier semestre, le fonds a été lourdement affecté par la chute des actions et du marché immobilier, des conséquences directes d’une économie mondiale paralysée par les mesures sanitaires. En effet, plus des deux tiers des placements du fonds sont des actions, actions qui ont accusé un recul de valeur de 6,8 % dans le semestre. Le fonds a été surtout pénalisé par la chute des marchés boursiers européens, qui ont perdu 11,7 % de leurs valeurs, là où Wall Street n'avait cédé que 2,1 %. "Cependant, la forte baisse boursière du premier trimestre a été limitée par une réponse massive des politiques monétaire et financière", a commenté Trond Grande, numéro deux du fonds.
Parallèlement, les placements immobiliers, qui représentent 2,8 % du portefeuille, ont affiché sur le semestre un rendement de -1,6 %. Ces pertes ont néanmoins été compensées par les placements en obligations, qui représentent 27,6 % du portefeuille et dont les gains semestriels ont été de 5,1 %. Lors de ce semestre, le fonds a notamment cédé des obligations d'État américaines et japonaises. Cessions qui lui ont permis de récupérer des liquidités et de reverser 16 milliards d'euros à son gouvernement pour l'aider à traverser la crise économique.
Ainsi, alors que le fonds avait engendré en 2019 150 milliards d’euros de gains grâce à l’envolée des marchés d'actions, le fonds a perdu cette année en un semestre 18 milliards d’euros (188 milliards de couronnes norvégiennes). "C'est une situation que nous aurions aimé éviter, mais nous avons heureusement bâti une réputation ces 20 dernières années qui montre que nous sommes aptes à résister à la tourmente", assure Trond Grande.
Les perspectives restent cependant encourageantes : les pertes se regroupent essentiellement sur le premier trimestre 2020, avec une sous-performance du fonds à -14,6 %, faisant descendre la valeur à 9 998 milliards de couronnes (950 milliards d’euros). Au deuxième trimestre, le fonds a connu un rebond de 13,1 %, porté par le redressement des Bourses et les diverses politiques de relance des pays, portant la valeur du fonds à 990 milliards d’euros (10 400 milliards de couronnes). Toutefois, Trond Grande ne cache pas que "même si les marchés ont bien rebondi au deuxième trimestre, nous décelons encore beaucoup d’incertitudes".
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