Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Élections US : avec Joe Biden, la fin des tarifs ?
Joe Biden n’est pas encore Président des États-Unis, tant s’en faut. Mais il maintient toujours une avance de 8 à 9 points sur Donald Trump dans les intentions de vote au plan national, des chiffres stables depuis plusieurs semaines. Or, force est de constater que la campagne 2020, qui s’est focalisée sur la pandémie, la crise économique et les tensions raciales dans le pays, n’a pas été riche en discussions sur les vues des deux candidats en matière de commerce extérieur. Donald Trump, qui a pratiqué une politique bien plus isolationniste que ses prédécesseurs, est entré dans une guerre commerciale avec la Chine et a utilisé l’arme des tarifs douaniers avec l’Empire du Milieu mais aussi d’autres partenaires, comme l’Union Européenne, comme jamais aucun autre Président avant lui. Et il devrait poursuivre cette rhétorique du "America First" s’il emportait un second mandat, surtout pour redresser une économie mise à mal par la crise du coronavirus.
Du côté de Joe Biden néanmoins, la position est nettement moins claire. Le candidat est avant tout un homme de compromis, dans son propre parti mais aussi dans sa nature, si bien que le problème de la politique commerciale risque d’être épineux pour lui. L’homme a été le vice-Président de Barack Obama, qui s’est associé aux républicains modérés pour faire aboutir des accords de libre-échange. Et notamment le partenariat Transpacifique, avec 11 nations d’Amérique et d’Asie, qui a été signé début 2016, mais vivement critiqué par son parti démocrate. Et a été rapidement retoqué par la nouvelle administration Trump, début 2017.
Car l’isolationnisme a été clé pour Donald Trump en 2016. Il a su convaincre les ouvriers, notamment des "swing states", lorsqu’il a accusé ces accords de libre-échange de tuer l’emploi et a promis une politique populiste, qui les revaloriserait. En 2020, Joe Biden a fait campagne en critiquant la façon dont le Président s’est mis à dos tous les partenaires historiques des États-Unis, et a échoué à inciter la Chine à changer ses pratiques. Mais de son côté, le candidat démocrate est pris entre le marteau et l’enclume : il a une carrière de politicien modéré mais a aussi dû faire des concessions aux progressistes de son parti. Bernie Sanders et Elizabeth Warren, qui ont été très populaires pendant la primaire, mais aussi les députés et sénateurs de la nouvelle génération comme Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, ont contribué à ancrer le programme du démocrate à gauche
Autre personnage important de cette élection : Kamala Harris, la numéro deux de ce ticket qui a apporté un second souffle à la campagne Biden dès sa nomination. Or, elle s’est dans le passé montrée beaucoup plus réticente sur ces accords et en tant que sénatrice, a même voté contre le traité de libre-échange amendé de l’administration Trump début 2020, car il n’y faisait aucune mention du changement climatique.
Pour le moment, Joe Biden s’est bien gardé d’afficher des positions tranchées sur le sujet difficile des traités et des tarifs douaniers. Il n’a pas indiqué s’il comptait maintenir les 360 milliards de dollars de tarifs douaniers prévus contre la Chine, mais s’est montré plus conciliant avec l’Europe, en promettant de mettre fin à "une guerre commerciale artificielle" avec un partenaire de longue date. À ce jour, il a d’autres priorités : un plan de relance économique Covid, des dépenses d’infrastructure ou encore un Green new deal. Il a donc besoin du soutien de ces députés et sénateurs les plus progressistes, surtout si le Congrès passe côté démocrate, pour passer à l’action dès ses premières semaines de mandat.
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