Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Saxo Bank : l’oiseau de mauvais augure
Comme chaque année, Saxo Bank met en lumière des évènements "chocs" qui pourraient survenir l’an prochain, jusqu’à présent peu considérés par les marchés. Si les scénarios envisagés paraissent audacieux, et ne font pas partie de ses prévisions officielles, ils ne sont pas irréalisables pour autant : l'établissement danois estime qu'il ne faut pas sous-estimer les risques imprévus sur les marchés. L'an dernier, Saxo Bank avait vu juste concernant la victoire du candidat démocrate aux élections présidentielles américaines et la récession aux États-Unis, bien qu'elle n’ait pas prédit la pandémie.
Première prédiction et pas des moindres pour l'an 2021 : le vaccin contre le Covid-19 pourrait provoquer une vague de faillites parmi les entreprises déjà fortement endettées estime Steen Jakobsen, responsable de la stratégie d'investissement de la banque. Allant à contre-courant de l’opinion actuelle des marchés, il émet l’hypothèse que la reprise permise par le vaccin conduira à une augmentation des salaires et de l’inflation, si bien que les taux d’intérêt grimperont ce qui provoquera plusieurs faillites de sociétés endettées. Sur le même sujet de la dette et des conséquences de la pandémie, concernant l’Hexagone, le banquier prophétise que, au vu de la dette publique française et de la mauvaise posture de son secteur financier, l’Allemagne devra sauver la France de la crise (!). Hormis ces deux prévisions de malheurs, le stratège prévoit que la matière première en vogue de l’année 2021 sera l’argent, dont l’once pourrait atteindre les 50 dollars, portée par une demande excédentaire, notamment du fait de son usage pour les panneaux solaires.
Les autres prophéties de l’analyste concernent toutes le domaine de la technologie. La mise en circulation d’un yuan technologique par la Chine pourrait faire perdre son hégémonie au dollar en tant que réserve mondiale. L’usage croissant de blockchain pourrait faire disparaître les fake news, grâce à la traçabilité de l’information et à la fiabilité qui caractérise cette technologie. La possible instauration d'un revenu de base global (un revenu minimum garanti qui est attribué de manière inconditionnelle à tous les habitants de tous les pays), grâce et à cause de la montée de la technologie, pourrait contribuer à accélérer le processus de désertification des villes. Enfin, le développement d’un algorithme par le Massachusetts Institute of Technology pourrait faire sortir le monde de sa peur d’une pénurie énergétique, en permettant de créer une nouvelle source d’énergie par fusion. Toutes ces prévisions auraient un impact considérable qui introduirait de nouveaux enjeux mondiaux et un bouleversement des rapports de force.
Concernant les technologies, le stratège aborde également le sujet clivant de la fiscalité des GAFA. Il imagine que le géant du commerce en ligne Amazon prenne la décision de déménager son siège social à Chypre pour bénéficier du taux d’imposition très bas pour les sociétés de l’île. Steen Jakobsen extrapole que cela permettrait à Chypre de rembourser une partie de sa dette nationale grâce aux recettes fiscales payées par le groupe de Jeff Bezos. Si nul ne peut prédire à ce jour ce qu’il en sera dans un an, il est certain que toute décision prise par un GAFA en 2021 provoquera un choc tout aussi important que s'il avait été à l’initiative d’un pays. Le pouvoir est partiellement passé des mains du monde public aux mains du monde privé.
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