Une chute sans lendemain pour le trafic aérien

Macro-économie / Taux

Une chute sans lendemain pour le trafic aérien

Le trafic aérien aura finalement reculé de deux tiers au cours de l’année écoulée, selon l’Iata, l’association référente. Et la résurgence de la pandémie annonce une prolongation de l’état de léthargie des compagnies aériennes.

PAR Clémentine de la Motte

Airbus

La chute est sans précédent depuis la naissance du secteur : le trafic mondial de passagers transportés par voie aérienne s’est effondré de 65,9 % en 2020 en glissement annuel sous l’effet de la crise sanitaire, selon les données publiées par l’Iata, l’association qui fédère les 290 compagnies aériennes mondiales. Ce 66 % est obtenu selon l’indicateur RPK, "passager-kilomètre", soit le transport d’une personne sur un kilomètre. "Il s’agit du plus gros choc que le secteur aérien ait jamais vécu", résume Brian Pearce, économiste en chef de l'organisation.

Au cœur de la crise, au mois d’avril dernier, le trafic international a plongé de 99 % en glissement annuel et le trafic domestique de 86 %. Si les liaisons domestiques ont partiellement repris les mois d’été, les vols internationaux ont tardé deux mois de plus avant de redécoller et n’ont retrouvé qu'une faible part de leur niveau de trafic initial. Timide embellie et de courte durée : au mois de décembre dernier, la chute du trafic de passagers atteignait encore 70 %, tirant la moyenne annuelle vers le bas.

Une baisse homogène entre les continents

Le trafic international est le plus meurtri, en repli de 75,6 %, davantage touché par les mesures d’endiguement du virus qui ont entraîné des périodes de fermetures de frontières et des restrictions d’accès à certains pays. Les liaisons nationales, en baisse de 48,8 %, ont mieux résisté grâce au marché intérieur chinois et russe. Il n'existe pas de fortes disparités entre les continents. La région la plus touchée est le Moyen-Orient, fortement dépendante des vols internationaux : le nombre de passagers a chuté de 72,2 %. L’Europe suit à -69,9 %, puis vient l’Afrique (- 69 %) et l’Amérique du Nord (-67 %). L’Amérique du Sud et l’Asie (-62 %) sont sensiblement en dessous de la moyenne mondiale mais l’écart est ténu.

Les perspectives de reprise s'éloignent

L’émergence de nouveaux variants du Covid-19 et la lenteur du processus de vaccination ne laissent pas présager un prompt redémarrage de l’activité, comme en témoignent les faibles taux de réservation de ce début d’année : en diminution de 70 % en janvier comparé à un an auparavant. Si l’on ne connaît pas encore les statistiques mondiales de l'Iata du mois dernier, celles de l’Eurocontrol, organisation qui recense les vols européens, indiquent que le trafic aérien s’est replié de 64 % sur le Vieux Continent en glissement annuel en janvier. L’association estime en outre que le trafic aérien ne retrouvera pas son niveau d’avant-crise avant l’année 2024, la décision de l’Union européenne de fermer ses frontières n’arrangeant rien. L'organisation, qui regroupe l'ensemble des compagnies aériennes, a également dû déprécier ses prévisions pour l’année 2021 : en hausse de 13 % par rapport à l’année 2020, qui devrait conserver le record de la pire année, elles demeurent bien en dessous du niveau pré-crise, à 38 % de la densité de trafic de 2019.

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France : l'amélioration des comptes ne cache pas les handicaps structurels

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