Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Le prix à payer du réchauffement climatique
Les catastrophes naturelles ont été en 2020 beaucoup plus coûteuses que ce que le secteur de l'assurance escomptait étant donné la multiplication des sinistres dits "secondaires". Elles devraient être légèrement moins coûteuses à l'avenir.
ouragan
Le traditionnel et très attendu rapport "Sigma" de Swiss Re, paru aujourd'hui, révèle que les catastrophes naturelles (ou "cat nat"), ont coûté, selon leurs estimations, beaucoup plus cher que prévu au secteur de l’assurance au cours de l'année passée.
L’étude estime que le coût des sinistres pour les assureurs et réassureurs est en hausse de 41 % en 2020 par rapport à 2019, faisant de l'année 2020 la cinquième année la plus coûteuse depuis 1970, début de la comptabilisation : les pertes mondiales assurées provoquées par des catastrophes naturelles au cours de l'année passée se sont élevées à 81 milliards de dollars - soit la moitié de la perte économique totale représentée par les catastrophes naturelles en 2020, laquelle s'élève à 190 milliards de dollars (contre 140 milliards en 2019).
Une augmentation que l'on explique par la multiplication des sinistres dit "secondaires", ou catastrophes de moyenne intensité, qui comprennent orages, inondations, sécheresse et feux de forêts, que l'on distingue des sinistres "primaires" qui comprennent les grandes catastrophes comme les ouragans ou les séismes. Les sinistres secondaires sont aujourd'hui responsables de la majorité (71 %) des pertes pour l'assurance liées à des catastrophes naturelles. Leur augmentation - principalement celle des tempêtes et incendies de forêts aux États-Unis et en Australie - provient à la fois de l'urbanisation, de la croissance démographique et du changement climatique, selon les analystes de Swiss Re.
L'année 2020 reste éloignée de la moyenne. Concernant les dix années à venir, l'institut prévoit que le coût des catastrophes naturelles pour les assureurs avoisinera les 67 milliards de dollars, c’est-à-dire un montant 15 % inférieur à celui de 2020 (81 milliards), mais qui reste 20 % supérieur à celui de 2019 (54 milliards).
Afin d'affronter la hausse des coûts par rapport à l'année pré-pandémie, l'institut prédit que les réassureurs devront continuer à rehausser les prix des lignes les plus touchées lors du renouvellement des traités pour conserver leurs marges et solvabilité. Swiss Re prévoit en outre une consolidation du secteur déjà fortement concentré autour des six acteurs majeurs : Swiss Re, Munich Re, Hannover Re, Scor, Berkshire Hathaway Re, et plus récemment l’acteur chinois China Reinsurance Group.
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