Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
L'engouement pour l'investissement repart
La tendance haussière ce trimestre du nombre d'entreprises ayant l'intention d'investir est signe de reprise. Il demeure qu'une grande partie des PME ne prévoit pas de retrouver rapidement son niveau d'activité d'avant-crise.
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Interrogés au cours de la dernière semaine du mois d’avril, les dirigeants des Très petites entreprises (TPE) et Petites et moyennes entreprises (PME) sont plus optimistes concernant ce trimestre qu’ils ne l’étaient pour le précédent, selon le sondage trimestriel de Bpifrance/Le Lab/Rexecode conduit auprès d'un peu moins de 2.000 entreprises.
Un regain de confiance en l’avenir
"Investir [...] c'est cela qui nous permettra de retrouver notre niveau de croissance d'avant-crise et de redonner de la grandeur à la Nation française", avait déclaré fin mars Bruno le Maire, ministre de l'Economie, des finances et de la relance. Le cours de l'histoire est pour l'instant conforme à ses attentes. Les intentions d’investissement des dirigeants s'améliorent : 57 % d'entre eux, si l'on se réfère au sondage, ont l’intention d’investir cette année, soit 2 points de plus qu’au mois de février 2021.
Et ce regain de confiance est à relier à l'amélioration attendue de leur situation financière. Le niveau de trésorerie anticipé pour ce trimestre se maintient à un niveau élevé et une proportion croissante de dirigeants (de 18 % contre 10 % lors du dernier sondage) anticipe une hausse de leur niveau de liquidité au cours des trois prochains mois. Autre point à relever : les chefs d’entreprise ayant amplifié leurs perspectives d’investissement ou d'embauche sont supérieures en nombre à ceux qui déclarent avoir annulé leurs projets de placements ; signe que la tendance est à la reprise.
Un lent retour à la croissance
Concernant le temps nécessaire pour retrouver un niveau d’activité proche de celui d’avant crise, 28 % des chefs d’entreprise sont confiants dans le fait que leur exercice 2021 dépassera, même légèrement, leur exercice 2019. Mais selon Jean-Baptiste Thonary, économiste chez Bpifrance, il s'agit "d'entreprises dans des secteurs ouverts, qui ont déjà affronté plusieurs confinements qui ne les ont pas vraiment ralenties", si bien que celles qui ont pâti de la crise restent en marge de la reprise. En est la preuve : encore 46 % des dirigeants interrogés jugent leur situation difficile.
L'inexistence du mur de faillites
La part des entreprises sur lesquelles la crise a provoqué des difficultés sans appel reste cependant faible. Seuls 2 % des dirigeants tablent sur une liquidation et 5 % craignent de ne pas parvenir à rembourser leur emprunt contracté via le mécanisme créé par le gouvernement, les Prêts garantis par l'État (PGE). Cette part limitée résonne avec la déclaration de Nicolas Dufourcq, directeur général de Bpifrance, qui ne croit pas à "une grande vague" de faillites en 2021. "Je pense qu'il y aura de l'ordre de 60.000 faillites. On aura l'effet report de l'année 2020 et peut-être un peu plus, parce qu'il y aura quelques entreprises, des TPE, petites, un peu zombies, dans les domaines très exposés de la restauration", a-t-il ajouté lors d’un entretien de BFM Business.
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