Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
La Société Générale entrevoit une reprise à plusieurs vitesses
Tandis que les indices des directeurs d'achats évoluent de manière inégale ces derniers mois, les pays retrouveront leur niveau de PIB d'avant crise à des rythmes différents, selon les économistes de la banque française.
Michala Marcussen - DR
La Société Générale a organisé hier une conférence pour présenter ses prévisions macroéconomiques, qui n'ont pas dû beaucoup rassurer : en effet, Michala Marcussen, cheffe économiste de la banque, Ariel Emirian, responsable macro-économie et Juan-Carlos Diaz Mendoza, économiste pour la zone Amériques, ont qualifié l’horizon de la sortie de crise de "brumeux".
Les PMI services de la zone euro et des États-Unis continuent de remonter depuis début 2021. En revanche, ces indicateurs s'inscrivent en baisse en Chine et au Japon. Michala Marcussen estime que les situations divergent en raison de la différence des phases de gestion de crise. La tendance est similaire pour le PMI manufacturier.
La banque française insiste sur la forte inégalité concernant la reprise des économies. Alors que la Chine et la Turquie n’ont eu besoin que de 6 mois pour retrouver leur PIB en volume par habitant prépandémique, l’Argentine devrait attendre un peu plus de 5 ans. La France, quant à elle, mettra probablement plus de 2 ans et demi.
À l’échelle sectorielle en zone euro, la crise économique de 2008 et la pandémie partagent toutes deux des similarités. L’alimentaire, l’informatique & communication, la finance & assurance et l’immobilier demeurent très faiblement affectés depuis le début de la crise. Il est intéressant de constater qu’à l’exception du secteur vital de l’alimentaire, ce sont ces services et fonctions supports qui résistent mieux que les secteurs manufacturier et industriel.
Au contraire, actuellement, ce sont les arts et le divertissement, le transport et l’hôtellerie qui ont essuyé les dégâts les plus importants, s'établissant environ entre -10% et -25% en dessous de leur niveau d'activité de la fin 2019 - au premier trimestre 2021. Ces données reflètent bien la mise "sous cloche" de certains secteurs de l’économie en zone euro. Autre différence avec la grande récession de 2008, la zone euro a été en mesure de maintenir environ deux fois plus d'emplois par point de PIB perdu grâce entre autres au dispositif de chômage partiel.
La Société Générale a également fait part de ses prévisions sur la croissance des économies développées. Ces dernières devraient connaître un rebond de 5,3 % en 2021 puis converger peu à peu vers leur niveau de croissance potentielle, 3 % en 2022 et 1,8 % en 2023. Les BRICS continueront à tendre vers un développement plus rapide : 5,9 % en 2021, 3,6 % en 2022 et 3,9 % en 2023. Les chiffres du groupe français ont tendance à être en dessous des prévisions de l’OCDE et du consensus.
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