Macro-économie / Taux / Zombification / M&G
Macro-économie / Taux
Zombification / M&G
L'accentuation de la zombification des entreprises
Les politiques monétaires actuelles sont accommodantes pour soutenir les entreprises dans le contexte pandémique, mais elles masquent en réalité l'augmentation du nombre d'entreprises non rentables, s'endettant de mal en pis.
ZOMBIE - DAWN OF THE DEAD (1978)
Florent Delorme, directeur des investissements, stratège macro chez M & G estime que la productivité des entreprises se dégrade et conduit à l’accélération de la zombification des entreprises.
La facilité du recours à l'emprunt avec des taux bas couplée aux subventions offre la possibilité aux entreprises de survivre temporairement face au contexte pandémique. Cela se traduit à travers le nombre de sociétés défaillantes. Selon l’Insee en France, 44 052 entreprises ont fait défaut en avril 2020 contre 28 808 seulement en avril 2021 tous secteurs confondus. Ainsi, les politiques accommodantes offrent du répit aux entreprises en difficultés. Par conséquent, une vague de défaillance est prévisible lorsque les mesures de protection vont s'arrêter.
Dans ce contexte, les entreprises deviennent moins productives et la sélection naturelle caractéristique de la libéralisation de l’économie s’effrite. Les flux de capitaux ne sont plus autant guidés par la recherche de la meilleure productivité comme à la fin du siècle précédent.
Il apparaît alors des entreprises "zombie", comme les nomme Florent Delorme. Concrètement, ce sont des entreprises qui ne sont pas en phase de lancement et dont les résultats ne permettent pas de rembourser les intérêts de sa dette. Pour poursuivre leurs activités, elles continuent à emprunter inexorablement. La Deutsche Bank illustre son omniprésence à l'échelle mondiale dans un rapport de Worldscope. Aux États-Unis, près de 27 % des entreprises en 2020 étaient des zombies. L’Allemagne, quant à elle, en dénombrait l’année dernière près de 12 %.
La tendance n’est pourtant pas nouvelle. La propagation des zombies s’est globalement amplifiée à partir du début des années 2000 en lien avec la montée du protectionnisme et de l’intervention des États sur les marchés financiers. Les krachs boursiers de 2000 et 2008 ont par ailleurs mis un coup d’accélérateur au phénomène.
Florent Delorme suggère donc en sortie de crise de mieux contrôler le produit des investissements. Il faudrait définir la "bonne dépense" avec la "bonne dette associée" pour faire correspondre la création monétaire avec la création de valeur ajoutée. Une meilleure attribution des capitaux permettrait une plus grande croissance économique.
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