Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Reprise économique : la flambée de l'endettement des entreprises
L’une des principales sociétés de gestion mondiale, Janus Henderson Investors, s’est penchée sur la santé financière du secteur privé alors que nous entrons dans une période de reprise économique.
Jacopo Landi / Hans Lucas / Hans Lucas via AFP
La crise a eu un effet particulièrement néfaste sur les entreprises qui, ayant été amputé d’un tiers de leurs bénéfices (selon le Corporate Debt Index), ont levé 1 300 milliards de dollars de dette au cours de l’année 2020, indique Janus Henderson Investors.
Depuis le début de la crise, les entreprises n’ont quasiment pas dépensé les sommes qu’elles avaient empruntées, dans le but de renforcer leur trésorerie. Cela explique le fait que leur dette nette n’ait pas augmenté au cours de l’année 2020 alors que la dette brute a subi une importante augmentation, à hauteur de 10 %. Elle s’est établie à 13 500 milliards de dollars en 2020, engendrant alors un nouveau niveau record. Mécaniquement, les liquidités ont fortement gonflé (à 5 200 milliards de dollars), que les entreprises commencent, depuis la reprise économique, à utiliser. C’est pour cette raison que Janus Henderson prévoit une hausse significative des dépenses en investissements ainsi que des rachats d’actifs que les entreprises avaient cessé de réaliser pendant la crise.
En revanche, le début de l’année 2021 a été de bon augure pour ces dernières, qui ont repris peu à peu leurs activités, permettant d’enregistrer une augmentation minime des dettes, seulement 1 % supplémentaire. Néanmoins, les estimations de Janus Henderson dessinent une tout autre évolution de la dette nette des entreprises du secteur privé au cours du second semestre. Alors que le gestionnaire s’attend à ce que la dette totale reste globalement stable, la dette nette devrait, selon ce dernier, augmenter de 550 milliards de dollars au cours de l’année 2021, atteignant ainsi un total d’environ 8 800 milliards de dollars.
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