Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
2021 sera un bien mauvais millésime pour le secteur aérien
Lors de l’assemblée générale de l’Association internationale du transport aérien à Boston, les compagnies aériennes ont communiqué les estimations de pertes pour 2021 et tablent sur 51,8 milliards de dollars. Un léger mieux est attendu en 2022.
Airbus A319 à Paris, France - Damien SLIM / AFP
À Boston, l’association internationale du transport aérien (Iata), représentant 290 compagnies aériennes et 82 % du trafic, s’est réunie pour assemblée générale la semaine dernière. A court terme, les perspectives ne sont guère réjouissantes.
Frappé de plein fouet par la crise sanitaire, le secteur fait face à un contexte toujours très difficile et le rebond tarde. Alors que les prévisions du mois d’avril anticipaient 47,7 milliards de dollars de pertes annuelles, la situation s’est détériorée. Au total, les pertes mondiales liées à la pandémie devraient s’élever à 51,8 milliards de dollars en 2021, selon les nouvelles estimations.
L’Iata anticipe une amélioration pour 2022, espérant que les pertes ne s'élèvent pas à plus de 11,6 milliards de dollars. De plus, l'association a révisé à la hausse les pertes de 2020, portant le montant total constaté à 137,7 milliards contre les 126,4 précédemment annoncés. Ainsi, entre 2020 et 2022, les restrictions contre la pandémie auront coûté 200 milliards de dollars aux compagnies aériennes.
Les déplacements aériens internationaux maintiennent leur niveau historiquement bas en 2021, à 22 % des niveaux de 2019 ; l'année prochaine, ils sont attendus à 44 % de leur niveau pré-crise, selon l'Iata. À l'échelle mondiale, 2,3 milliards de personnes auront pris l'avion en 2021 et 3,4 milliards en 2022, des résultats similaires aux niveaux de 2014 et bien inférieurs aux 4,5 milliards de 2019.
Cependant, de nombreux contrastes se sont dessinés selon les grandes zones d’activités. Par exemple, les compagnies aériennes américaines devraient afficher un bénéfice de 9,9 milliards de dollars en 2022, grâce à leur solide marché intérieur qui alimente l'activité des moyen-courriers. L’Amérique du Nord représente également de ce fait une part importante du trafic des compagnies étrangères qui y sont bien implantées : le continent a par exemple représenté 40 % de l’activité mondiale d’Air France depuis le début de la crise sanitaire. Mais globalement, les compagnies européennes sont davantage exposées aux réseaux long-courriers. Paralysées par les fermetures de frontières et les restrictions sanitaires, elles seront toujours déficitaires en 2022, avec une perte prévue de 9,2 milliards de dollars.
L’annonce de la fin du travel ban par le président américain Joe Biden devrait toutefois marquer une nouvelle dynamique pour le secteur. Mise en place en mars 2020 et interdisant l’accès au territoire américain aux voyageurs étrangers, cette politique avait grandement pénalisé l’industrie aérienne.
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