Macro-économie / Taux

Léger rebond pour l’économie britannique en août

Les bars et les festivals ont stimulé la reprise de l'économie britannique cet été, puisque le PIB a augmenté de 0,4 % en août. Toutefois, il n'est resté qu'à 0,8 % du niveau pré-pandémique de février 2020, selon l'Office for National Statistics (ONS).

PAR Timothée Biet

Londoniens en terrasse - PETER SUMMERS / GETTY IMAGES EUROPE / GETTY IMAGES VIA AFP

Au mois d’août, les secteurs de l'hébergement et de la restauration, ainsi que le secteur des arts, divertissements et loisirs, ont fortement contribué à la reprise de croissance des services, qui représentent plus de 80 % de l'économie britannique.

Les activités de services ont augmenté de 0,3% en août, rebondissant après une baisse de 0,1% en juillet, tandis que l'industrie manufacturière a progressé de 0,5% après la baisse de 0,6% en juillet.

La production globale a augmenté de 0,8 %, soit une accélération par rapport à la hausse de 0,3 % enregistrée en juillet, l'extraction de pétrole brut et de gaz naturel ayant rebondi après la fermeture temporaire de sites pétroliers pour rénovation. Cependant, la construction a continué de se contracter, de 0,2 %, et se situe désormais à 1,5 % en dessous de son niveau d'avant la pandémie.

Selon l'ONS britannique, les pénuries de puces se sont atténuées en août, ce qui a permis à l'industrie manufacturière de renouer avec la croissance, mais la production automobile est toujours à 14 % du pic atteint en février dernier. L'ONS a également revu l’évolution du PIB au mois de juillet, passant d'une croissance de 0,1 % à une baisse de 0,1 %. Cette revue à la baisse s’explique par la publication de nouvelles données des secteurs pétrolier et gazier, ainsi que du secteur de la santé.

David Page, responsable de la recherche macroéconomique chez Axa Investment Managers, s’est avoué déçu des chiffres d'août. "À première vue, le ralentissement marqué de l'activité économique au troisième trimestre devrait servir de mise en garde contre un resserrement trop rapide de la politique monétaire. De plus, le PIB semble devoir faire face à la hausse des prix des services publics, aux réductions du crédit universel et aux augmentations éventuelles de la sécurité sociale, qui pèsent tous sur les revenus des ménages au cours d'un hiver qui s'annonce difficile", estime-t-il. Axa IM a ainsi modifié ses prévisions pour envisager une première hausse de 0,15 % à 0,25 % par la Bank of England en février prochain : "Nous envisageons ensuite une deuxième en août à 0,50% et une troisième en mai 2023 à 0,75%", a-t-il ajouté.

Le FMI avait averti mardi que la reprise du Royaume-Uni après l'épidémie de coronavirus serait probablement plus lente que celle des autres pays et qu'en 2024, l'économie resterait inférieure de 3 % au niveau prévu.

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01/01/1970 - 01:00

France : l'amélioration des comptes ne cache pas les handicaps structurels

01/01/1970 - 01:00

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01/01/1970 - 01:00

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