Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Europe : l'endettement promet de rester élevé pendant des années
Selon une étude réalisée par Moody's, les perspectives pour l'année prochaine sont stables grâce à des conditions économiques et monétaires favorables. Cependant, les niveaux d'endettement devraient se maintenir à un niveau élevé pendant les prochaines années.
Drapeaux des pays membres de l’Union Européenne - JULIEN WARNAND / POOL / AFP
L’étude de Moody’s prévoit que la solvabilité des Etats en 2022 dans la zone euro devrait être relativement stable. Les niveaux élevés de vaccination et les plans de dépenses nationaux et européens soutiendront la reprise économique en 2022, ce qui devrait permettre un léger désendettement après les augmentations considérables de la dette provoquées par la pandémie. Dans le même temps, la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) devrait conserver son attitude accommodante malgré les pressions inflationnistes croissantes, ce qui devrait limiter une augmentation des coûts d'emprunt. De surcroît, cela permettra à certains de refinancer les dettes arrivant à échéance à des taux plus bas.
En outre, les investissements et les réformes structurelles liés à l'initiative "Next Generation EU" (NGEU) pourraient considérablement stimuler la productivité et le potentiel de croissance, faibles avant la crise dans de nombreux pays bénéficiaires. Toutefois, le ratio médian dette/PIB de la région restera supérieur de 11,7 % à ce qu'il était en 2019. De même, le montant de l'assainissement budgétaire nécessaire pour ramener la dette aux niveaux d'avant la pandémie est important.
Tout au long du premier semestre de 2021, la pandémie a continué de peser sur les finances publiques et sur l’activité économique, malgré les mesures de soutien employées par les différents gouvernements. Toutefois, la croissance économique a rebondi de manière significative au cours du second semestre, soulignant la résistance des profils de crédit au choc de la pandémie.
Grâce aux campagnes de vaccination et au déploiement des plans de relance nationaux et régionaux, le PIB réel devrait croître de 4,5 % en 2022, en légère baisse par rapport aux 4,8 % de 2021, mais une hausse par rapport à la moyenne de 2,0 % sur la période 2015-2019. Cette croissance plus robuste permettra d'augmenter les recettes publiques et facilitera la stabilisation de la dette.
L’étude réalisée par Moody’s prévoit un léger désendettement dès l'année prochaine dans tous les pays de la zone euro, à l'exception de quatre d'entre eux. Malgré cela, la charge de la dette médiane de la région sera toujours supérieure de 11,7 % par rapport à ce qu’elle était en 2019.
Finalement, le NGEU offre aux grands bénéficiaires une occasion unique de relever les défis économiques structurels, estime l'agence de notation. Les premières étapes de la mise en œuvre du NGEU en 2022 devraient se dérouler sans accroc. Les premiers décaissements au titre de la facilité pour le redressement et la résilience (FRR) ont eu lieu au second semestre de 2021 et la mise en place de fonds supplémentaires devrait se faire en 2022. Associés aux réformes structurelles, les investissements du NGEU ont le potentiel de stimuler considérablement la productivité et le potentiel de croissance. D’après l’étude, les fonds de relance pourraient ajouter 0,7 point de pourcentage à la croissance du PIB dans les principaux pays bénéficiaires d'Europe du Sud comme la Grèce, l'Italie, le Portugal et l'Espagne entre 2021 et 2027.
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