Macro-économie / Taux

France : les collectivités territoriales devraient traverser 2022 sans encombre

Les perspectives pour 2022 pour les collectivités territoriales françaises sont stables, indique une étude de l'agence de notation Moody's. Cela s’explique par la forte reprise de la croissance, la normalisation des dépenses de fonctionnement et la stabilité du poids de la dette.

PAR Timothée Biet

Jacqueline Gourault, ministre de la Cohésion des territoires et des Relations avec les collectivités territoriales.- IDRISS BIGOU-GILLES / HANS LUCAS / HANS LUCAS VIA AFP

La nouvelle étude de Moody’s prévoit des perspectives pour 2022 stables pour l’ensemble des collectivités territoriales. Grâce à la forte reprise de l'économie française, Moody’s anticipe une augmentation de 2,2% des recettes de fonctionnement pour atteindre des niveaux supérieurs à ceux enregistrés avant la pandémie. Le PIB nominal devrait connaître une hausse de 5,3 % en 2022, augmentant ainsi les recettes fiscales des collectivités territoriales d'environ 1,6 %.

Dans un second temps, le contrôle rigoureux des coûts sera essentiel pour ramener la croissance des dépenses d'exploitation à des niveaux pré-pandémiques. Il devra permettre à la croissance des dépenses d'exploitation de retrouver des niveaux plus conformes à ceux de 2016-19. Les charges d'intérêts continueront de diminuer, tandis que la croissance des frais généraux et des frais de personnel se normalisera, selon Moody's. De surcroît, la reprise du marché du travail français ralentira la hausse des coûts des prestations sociales, qui sont principalement couverts par les départements.

D’autre part, le financement de "France Relance" permettra le maintien à des niveaux élevés d'investissement en capital tous les niveaux de gouvernance locale, souligne l'agence de notation. Pour les régions et les départements, les plans de dépenses pré-pandémiques et les nouvelles priorités vertes et sociales dans le cadre de France Relance 2021-2026 verront les dépenses d'investissement se stabiliser, bien qu'à des niveaux élevés. En revanche, les communes et les intercommunalités continueront d'augmenter leurs dépenses d'investissement car ces dernières augmentent généralement dans les premières années suivant les élections.

Dès l’année prochaine, la charge de la dette commencera à diminuer, prédit Moody's. Une solide capacité d'autofinancement et des recettes d'investissement importantes permettront une baisse progressive de la dette par rapport aux recettes de fonctionnement en 2022.

Finalement, les taux d'intérêt bas continueront à soutenir l'accessibilité de la dette. En effet, la politique monétaire accommodante de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) maintiendra les taux d'intérêt bas sur la courbe des taux et permettra aux collectivités locales de financer leurs nouveaux emprunts à moindre coût.

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France : l'amélioration des comptes ne cache pas les handicaps structurels

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JE M’ABONNE POUR DEUX ANS

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