Macro-économie / Taux / Comité européen du risque systémique
Macro-économie / Taux
Comité européen du risque systémique
Le Comité européen du risque systémique sonne l’alarme /
Les risques pour la stabilité financière seraient en hausse
UKRAINE.
Inflation élevée persistante, resserrement des conditions financières, dégradation des perspectives économiques… autant d’éléments qui font que les risques pour la stabilité financière sont en augmentation, d’après le Comité européen du risque systémique.
Christine Lagarde, présidente du Comité européen du risque systémique et de la Banque centrale européenne - Arne Dedert/ZUMA Press/ZUMA/REA
"Cet environnement instable fait peser des risques considérables sur la stabilité financière en Europe", a déclaré Christine Lagarde, présidente de la Banque centrale européenne (BCE) et du Comité européen du risque systémique (ESRB). L’instance créée dans la foulée de la crise financière mondiale pour superviser le système financier de l'Union européenne (UE) et prévenir et atténuer le risque systémique fait état de risques à la hausse pour la stabilité financière du Vieux continent.
"Cela reflète une inflation élevée persistante, un resserrement des conditions financières et une détérioration perceptible des perspectives économiques", a déclaré l’ESRB à l’issue de sa 48ème réunion, indiquant que malgré une croissance européenne meilleure que prévu cet été (le Produit intérieur brut de l’UE a progressé de 0,4% en juillet et septembre), "une période prolongée de faible croissance et d'inflation élevée, due en partie à la flambée des prix de l'énergie, pourrait entraîner de nouvelles tensions sur les bilans des entreprises non financières et des ménages, ainsi qu'une augmentation du nombre de faillites ".
D’après les dernières prévisions de la BCE, l’inflation des Dix-neuf devrait s’établir au-dessus de 5% l’an jusqu’au troisième trimestre 2023 et il faudra attendre le printemps 2025 pour qu’elle se rapproche de l’objectif de 2%. Le PIB de la zone euro quant à lui devrait reculer durant ce trimestre, puis le suivant avant de croître de 0,1% au deuxième trimestre 2023.
Les mouvements à venir sur les marchés financiers inquiètent l’ESRB. "Bien que la chute significative des prix des actifs au cours de l'année 2022 ait été largement ordonnée [le Stoxx 600 a perdu 10% depuis le début de l’année tandis que les indices obligataires privés et souverains ont dégringolé de 12 à 15% sur un an, ndlr], les risques pour la stabilité financière découlant d'une éventuelle correction brutale des prix des actifs restent élevés", a déclaré l’organisme situé à Francfort, qui cite une escalade des tensions géopolitiques comme potentiel élément déclencheur.
Le marché de l’immobilier fait également l’objet d’une attention particulière. Les membres de l’ESRB perçoivent de plus en plus d'éléments indiquant que le cycle immobilier dans plusieurs pays de l'UE pourrait atteindre un tournant, en raison de la hausse prononcée des taux de crédit hypothécaire depuis le début de l'année (à 2,30%, ils ont augmenté de près de 100 points de base en zone euro) et de la détérioration des perspectives macroéconomiques. "Ils ont noté que les données relatives aux transactions et les réponses aux enquêtes prospectives auprès des ménages, qui montrent une baisse des intentions d'achat ou de construction d'une maison, suggèrent que la probabilité d'une baisse des prix dans un avenir proche augmente", fait savoir l’ESRB. Dans le "tableau de bord des risques" publié à l’occasion de cette nouvelle réunion, la borne haute des estimations (au deuxième trimestre 2022) fait état d'une surévaluation de plus de 20% des prix de l'immobilier en zone euro.
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