Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Faux retour à la normale pour les émissions de CO2 / La hausse des émissions n'a plus les mêmes causes
L’usage plus important d’énergies propres l’an passé a certes permis de retrouver une tendance décennale de hausse des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Malheureusement, la hausse de 1,6 % de celles en provenance du charbon a complètement compensé la baisse de 1,6 % concernant le gaz naturel.
Raffinerie. Stephane AUDRAS/REA
"Les répercussions de la crise énergétique n’ont pas entraîné l’augmentation majeure des émissions mondiales que l’on craignait au départ." C’est un Fatih Birol, directeur de l’Agence internationale de l’Énergie (AIE), soulagé qui s’est exprimé à l’occasion du premier rapport de l’AIE faisant partie du Global Energy Transitions Stocktake, une série de publications préparatoires à la COP28 de novembre prochain.
Un succès qu’il prête en grande partie "à la croissance exceptionnelle des énergies renouvelables, des véhicules électriques, des pompes à chaleur et des technologies à haut rendement énergétique. " Autant de bonnes nouvelles qui ont permis le retour à une tendance décennale, la hausse des émissions de 0,9 % en 2022 ayant "été nettement plus lente que la croissance économique mondiale de 3,2 %".
Épées de Damoclès
Autant le directeur général de l’AIE peut se réjouir des progrès significatifs accomplis dans le domaine des énergies renouvelables, autant il peut s’inquiéter du fait que "sans les énergies propres, la croissance des émissions de CO2 aurait été près de trois fois plus importante. " C’est bien là le danger, les efforts accomplis dans ce secteur ne constituent pas un droit à augmenter les émissions ailleurs.
Pourtant le rapport relève qu’il y a eu "une augmentation des émissions provenant des combustibles fossiles ", par conséquent cela "entrave les efforts déployés pour atteindre les objectifs climatiques mondiaux". Alors que l’incertitude liée au retour de l’usine du monde à plein régime est à son paroxysme, notamment sur le plan de l’extraction du charbon, l’AIE ne fait cependant pas d’attaque ad hominem. Elle se contente de pointer du doigt le secteur privé et fustige les firmes liées aux "combustibles fossiles [qui] réalisent des revenus records et [qui] doivent assumer leur part de responsabilité, conformément aux engagements publics qu’elles ont pris pour atteindre les objectifs climatiques."
Mi-figue mi-raisin
La fin de la pandémie s’accompagne également du retour à la normale des voyages par avion et logiquement les émissions totales des transports "ont augmenté de 2,1 %, également sous l’effet de la croissance dans les économies avancées." Une dynamique qui est plus forte dans les pays avancés qui voit ainsi les émissions de l’aviation retrouver à 85 % leurs niveaux de 2019, quand les économies émergentes et en développement n’en sont qu’à 73 %.
Des hausses qui atténuent fortement les efforts accomplis, notamment en ce qui concernent les ventes de voitures électriques qui ont dépassé les 10 millions l’an passé, soit plus 14 % des ventes sur le globe. De façon similaire, la baisse de 2,5 % des émissions réalisée en un an par le Vieux continent se heurte à la hausse de 4,2 % de celles des économies émergentes et en développement d’Asie et à la progression de 0,8 % enregistrée aux États-Unis. Le concert des nations est donc encore loin d’être à l’unisson sur la question, au point que l’institution dirigée par Fatih Birol assène que "les émissions restent sur une trajectoire de croissance non durable, ce qui appelle des actions plus fortes pour accélérer la transition vers les énergies propres".
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