Macro-économie / Taux
Macro-économie / Taux
Les prix agricoles stabilisés mais prêts à repartir de plus belle / Les effets de la guerre en Ukraine pèseront durablement
" Les graves tensions d’approvisionnement qui ont vu le jour avec le début de la guerre en Ukraine persisteront tout au long de 2023." La récente publication de Coface concernant la reconduction de l’accord sur les transports de céréales en mer Noire confirme les craintes d’une nouvelle crise alimentaire mondiale. L’indice de l’Organisation des Nations unies pour l’alimentation et l’agriculture (FAO) des prix des produits alimentaires a certes une nouvelle fois baissé, cette fois 2,1% par rapport à février, mais il n’en reste pas moins que la situation reste explosive et tout particulièrement en ce qui concerne les céréales.
L’ombre du Kremlin
Le conflit entamé il y a déjà plus d’un an par Vladimir Poutine perdure et les perturbations qui l’accompagnent également. La production mondiale de céréales en pâtit, elle est attendue en diminution de 2 % pour la récolte 2022/2023, et les exportations également, ce qui conduit à des mesures protectionnistes renforçant les tensions sur le marché. Déjà, le mois passé, nous constations que nombre de ces entraves au libre-échange étaient encore en place. Coface rapporte ainsi que l’Empire du Milieu "détient désormais plus de 50 % des stocks mondiaux de blé."
Moscou et Kiev prolongeant leur conflit, " l’extension de 60 jours de l’accord sur le corridor dédié au transport de céréales en Mer noire apporte d’une bouffée d’air aux marchés mais elle ne résout donc pas les problèmes d’approvisionnement à long terme.", explique la compagnie d'assurance crédit pour le commerce extérieur. Les dégâts causés à l’outil de production ukrainien sont vraisemblablement amenés à durer, les surfaces cultivées ont déjà été réduites de 25 % l’an passé dans le pays du président Volodymyr Zelensky. L’accord conclu entre les deux parties ne constitue qu’un moindre mal, étant donné que, comme le rappelle Coface, "les flux transitant par le détroit du Bosphore sont ainsi inférieurs d’environ 50 % aux niveaux d’avant-guerre."
Autre front, autre histoire
Si la Russie rencontre quant à elle des difficultés à vendre certains de ses produits à l’export et que 25 % des exportations mondiales de blé provenaient des deux pays, cela n’empêche pas d’autres marchés bien différents d’être sous tension. Ainsi, l’Indice FAO des prix du sucre a gagné 1,5% par rapport à février, ce qui lui "fait atteindre son plus haut niveau depuis octobre 2016", selon l’institution. Cela survient alors que " les cultures de canne à sucre du Brésil, dont la récolte est imminente, offrent des perspectives positives qui ont limité la pression haussière sur les prix mondiaux du sucre", et ce en partie grâce à une " chute des prix internationaux du pétrole brut, encourageant une plus grande utilisation de la canne à sucre pour produire du sucre au Brésil." Le récent choix de l’Organisation des pays producteurs de pétrole de diminuer sa production laisse donc craindre une nouvelle hausse.
A contrario, bonne nouvelle en ce qui concerne l’Indice FAO des prix des huiles végétales ; il " s’est établi en moyenne à 131,8 points en mars, soit 4,1 points (3,0 pour cent) de moins qu’en février, et 47,7 pour cent de moins qu’il y a un an." Une baisse importante permise notamment par des prix des huiles de colza et de tournesol qui "ont eux aussi continué de reculer, respectivement sous l’effet d’une offre importante et d’une faible demande mondiale d’importation." La baisse de l’indice FAO des prix des produits alimentaires a également bénéficié de la baisse de l’indice de prix des produits laitiers, malgré une hausse des prix de la viande constaté ce dernier mois.
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